Grayghost wrote:I'll look at this from a conference standpoint.
The Sun Belt, MAC, and C-USA are non-contenders, unless Houston finally pulls it all together and plays some defence and goes undefeated, and even then a long shot.
Agreed. And even if Houston does somehow pull it off, that would require at least two losses for everybody in the SEC + Texas, Oklahoma or the Big 10 winner.
The ACC just doesn't have a team that can put together an undefeated season
The Big East could send Pitt, or possibly W. Virginia, but unlikly.
I still think that both conferences have the problem of being too balanced. The Big East moreso than the ACC, but the principle is the same. They knock each other out of contention in conference play. Its my biggest problem with the BCS actually, that a balanced conference punishes the teams in it....
Pitt could run the table and look strong just to lose to W. Va, who will have an outside chance only to lose to Rutgers. Connecticut meanwhile will have a strong season, but lose to at least Pitt or W. Va... Rutgers and USF will have one of their usual seasons, respectable until they lose 2 or 3 games in a row.
Va Tech probably has the best chance in the ACC, but between Miami, Fla. St, UNC, and that OOC game vs. Boise, I just can't see them taking it all.
The PAC 10 will have no one in the conversation this year.
Maybe Oregon. Although I could see the teams knocking each other out of contention a la the Big East. USC will have a season long mission of nothing to gain but screwing up everybody else.
That leaves it to the Big 10, Big 12, SEC, WAC, and MWC.
These are the teams that will be in the conversation: Ohio St., Alabama, Florida, Boise St., BYU/TCU winner, Texas and Oklahoma. There are probably some dark horses out there, but nothing is really jumping out at me. Although a friend of mine thinks Miami is a lock for the NC game...
I'd add Oregon, Iowa, and maybe Penn St. as a dark horse if they pull something out vs. Alabama.
Ask my gut, I'd say its Alabama vs. Oklahoma... though I haven't exactly rushed out to throw a futures bet on either of the two.