Bowl Projections! Pt. 2 (Updated 12/2)

[Eric]

I had to modify my projections from my last post. I recently had Florida in the BCS, but I've had a change of heart and believe that Florida State will beat Florida. This puts Florida out of the automatic qualifier spot. Miami has decided to self-impose a bowl ban on themselves and will sit out the postseason. The ACC teams slide up a notch and 6-6 Central Michigan fills in for the Independence Bowl.

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Kent State vs. Utah State
New Mexico Bowl: Arizona State vs. Nevada
Poinsettia Bowl: San Diego State vs. BYU
Beef O’Brady’s Bowl: UCF vs. Ohio
Las Vegas Bowl: Boise State vs. Arizona
New Orleans Bowl: UL Lafayette vs. ECU
Hawaii Bowl: Fresno State vs. San Jose State
Little Caesar’s Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. Arkansas State
Belk Bowl: Duke vs. Cincinnati
Holiday Bowl: USC vs. West Virginia
Military Bowl: Bowling Green vs. Western Kentucky
Independence Bowl: UL Monroe vs. Central Michigan
Meineke Car Care of Texas Bowl: Iowa State vs. Minnesota
Russell Athletic Bowl: Rutgers vs. NC State
Alamo Bowl: Stanford vs. Oklahoma State
Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force vs. Rice
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: Michigan State vs. Texas Tech
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: Washington vs. Navy
Pinstripe Bowl: TCU vs. Syracuse
Chick-fil-a Bowl: Clemson vs. Florida
Liberty Bowl: Tulsa vs. Louisiana Tech
Music City Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Vanderbilt
Sun Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Oregon State
Capital One Bowl: Michigan vs. Georgia
Gator Bowl: Northwestern vs. Mississippi State
Outback Bowl: Wisconsin vs. South Carolina
Heart of Dallas Bowl: Baylor vs. Purdue
Cotton Bowl: LSU vs. Texas
Rose Bowl: Nebraska vs. UCLA
Orange Bowl: Florida State vs. Louisville
Sugar Bowl: Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma
Fiesta Bowl: Kansas State vs. Oregon
BBVA Compass Bowl: Ball State vs. Troy
GoDaddy.com Bowl: Toledo vs. Middle Tennessee
BCS Championship: Notre Dame vs. Alabama

[Derek]

Interesting match up in the Fiesta.

I'm still holding on to my opinion of Ga beating Alabama.

And I think the "Peach" bowl would be a good matchup. Might even try to wrangle up tickets.

[Eric]

If Clemson does get shut out for a BCS bid, then whomever they play will make it a de facto BCS bowl game. Odds are the SEC will find a way to avoid South Carolina going there. If South Carolina got a New Year's game, then that means they'll play Georgia, Florida, or LSU.

[Eric]

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Kent State vs. Utah State
New Mexico Bowl: Arizona vs. Nevada
Poinsettia Bowl: San Diego State vs. BYU
Beef O’Brady’s Bowl: UCF vs. Western Kentucky
Las Vegas Bowl: Boise State vs. USC
New Orleans Bowl: UL Lafayette vs. Rice
Hawaii Bowl: Fresno State vs. ECU
Little Caesar’s Bowl: Toledo vs. Middle Tennessee
Belk Bowl: Duke vs. Cincinnati
Holiday Bowl: Oregon State vs. TCU
Military Bowl: San Jose State vs. Ball State
Independence Bowl: UL Monroe vs. Ohio
Meineke Car Care of Texas Bowl: Iowa State vs. Minnesota
Russell Athletic Bowl: Rutgers vs. Virginia Tech
Alamo Bowl: Stanford vs. Oklahoma State
Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force vs. SMU
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: Michigan State vs. Texas Tech
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: Washington vs. Navy
Pinstripe Bowl: West Virginia vs. Syracuse
Chick-fil-a Bowl: Clemson vs. LSU
Liberty Bowl: Tulsa vs. Louisiana Tech
Music City Bowl: Bowling Green vs. Vanderbilt
Sun Bowl: NC State vs. Arizona State
Capital One Bowl: Michigan vs. Georgia
Gator Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Mississippi State
Outback Bowl: Northwestern vs. South Carolina
Heart of Dallas Bowl: Baylor vs. Purdue
Cotton Bowl: Texas A&M vs. Texas
Rose Bowl: Nebraska vs. UCLA
Orange Bowl: Florida State vs. Louisville
Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Oklahoma
Fiesta Bowl: Kansas State vs. Oregon
BBVA Compass Bowl: Ole Miss vs. Pitt
GoDaddy.com Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. Arkansas State
BCS Championship: Notre Dame vs. Alabama


Okay, another week, and another set of projections. I'm sticking with UCLA over Stanford. I felt like the whole game today was kind of a "wink, wink" type of performance. You never go out and try to lose, but I feel like they didn't show their hand intentionally. A win would have gotten them Oregon. Florida gets into the Sugar with an automatic at-large berth. Boise State and Kent State are alive in terms of at-large autoberths depending on the rankings tomorrow, believe it or not. I've got Bama over Georgia in the SEC title game.

Teams that entered my projections were Pitt, Ole Miss, and SMU. Only team exiting was Troy who lost to Middle Tennessee today. If you're a Central Michigan fan, today was Armageddon and probably the worst-case scenario: Any team that had a legitimate chance to win and get to six wins pretty much did besides Troy. Ole Miss, UConn, SMU, and Pitt did so as underdogs and Michigan State, Virginia Tech, Purdue, and Baylor played games that were virtual coinflips and they all happened to go the way of the team with 5 wins. Central and Georgia Tech are the last teams and only teams out in my projections. Their only hope of getting in at this point is Georgia Tech, UConn, and Pitt all losing next week.

Speaking of Georgia Tech, losing to Florida State, as they almost inevitably will, will put them at 6-7 and behind all 6-6 teams, may eliminate them from bowl contention. UCLA filed a waiver last year with the NCAA and said that they would have had a non-losing record had they not been forced to play Oregon in the Pac-12 title due to USC being suspended. Since Georgia Tech tied with North Carolina and Miami, it would be interesting to see if they would appeal and if the NCAA would accept it in this case since Miami and North Carolina are not in the bowl picture. I have them out right now, but if they did manage to win the appeal, they would take the slot in the Music City or Belk Bowl and it would send a ripple through the at-large scenarios, most likely leaving Western Kentucky out of the picture.

I think the LC Pizza Bowl, who gets the first pick, realizes that they won't draw a hugely competitive matchup with the MAC champ and an at-large. I think they go with the shameless homer pick and send Toledo there to face Middle Tennessee (which won't be a bad game). Kent State loses and goes to the Potato Bowl. NIU wins and faces Sun Belt champ Arkansas State in a rematch of the 2012 GoDaddy Bowl. Ole Miss has a chance to go to the Liberty Bowl instead of the BBVA Compass Bowl. I really have no idea which one they would go to, but I think Louisiana Tech will want to go up against the C-USA winner and there's a chance they go to the Independence Bowl. San Jose State won't go to Hawaii with both Rice and SMU getting eligible, which is unfortunate for them. Instead of going westward to paradise, they have to travel across the country to Washington DC. I think the LC Pizza Bowl is also an option for them.

[Eric]

Alright, final projections. Teams in itallics have accepted bids:

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Toledo vs. Utah State
New Mexico Bowl: Arizona vs. Nevada
Poinsettia Bowl: San Diego State vs. BYU
Beef O’Brady’s Bowl: UCF vs. Middle Tennessee
Las Vegas Bowl: Boise State vs. USC
New Orleans Bowl: UL Lafayette vs. ECU
Hawaii Bowl: Fresno State vs. SMU
Little Caesar’s Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. Louisiana Tech
Belk Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Cincinnati
Holiday Bowl: UCLA vs. TCU
Military Bowl: San Jose State vs. Ohio
Independence Bowl: UL Monroe vs. Bowling Green
Meineke Car Care of Texas Bowl: Baylor vs. Purdue
Russell Athletic Bowl: Rutgers vs. Virginia Tech
Alamo Bowl: Oregon State vs. Oklahoma State
Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force vs. Rice
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl: Michigan State vs. Texas Tech
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: Washington vs. Navy
Pinstripe Bowl: West Virginia vs. Syracuse
Chick-fil-a Bowl: Clemson vs. LSU
Liberty Bowl: Tulsa vs. Ball State
Music City Bowl: Duke vs. Vanderbilt
Sun Bowl: NC State vs. Arizona State
Capital One Bowl: Nebraska vs. Texas A&M
Gator Bowl: Northwestern vs. Mississippi State
Outback Bowl: Michigan vs. South Carolina
Heart of Dallas Bowl: Iowa State vs. Minnesota
Cotton Bowl: Georgia vs. Texas
Rose Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Stanford
Orange Bowl: Florida State vs. Louisville
Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Oklahoma
Fiesta Bowl: Kansas State vs. Oregon
BBVA Compass Bowl: Ole Miss vs. Pitt
GoDaddy.com Bowl: Kent State vs. Arkansas State
BCS Championship: Notre Dame vs. Alabama

The C-USA bids are locked up. The Pac-12 and Big 12 slots are in complete flux as the standings are a giant logjam. If there's a matchup you can dream up, it's a possibility. Rumors are going around saying that Georgia will get the Cotton Bowl and that Texas A&M will get the Capital One. Nebraska dropping out of the Rose puts them in line for a Capital One berth. I think the Outback gets Michigan and South Carolina. LSU drops to the Chick-fil-a Bowl.

Trying to figure out what the MAC will do is near impossible. Detroit gets the first pick this year and Louisiana Tech has declined an invite to the Independence Bowl to play UL Monroe. This means they're going to hold out for either Hawaii, Detroit, or Memphis depending on what happens. I think the LC Pizza Bowl gets an attractive matchup here, but they could easily wind up playing Tulsa. I think they accept the bid that pits them against a nationally ranked team. If LT winds up in the Liberty Bowl, then Western Kentucky will get a bid somewhere and push out either Bowling Green or Ohio. Of course, Northern Illinois still has that shot at a BCS berth and Boise State could be in position via miracle.

Syracuse and Pitt could flip easily. I wouldn't be surprised if the Pinstripe Bowl went with the Backyard Brawl, but they could also go with the hometown team to sell tickets. Honestly I would lean a little bit towards Pitt at this point, but I had Syracuse so I'm sticking with that for the time being

[Brian Roastbeef]

Yep. Hearing on Twitter that 'Cuse is officially headed to the Pinstripe Bowl. They like us in NYC, we travel well there, and to snub a Big East co-champ for 6-6 (2-4) team would have been too much.

[Eric]

I'm hearing sources saying Northern Illinois / Florida State in the Orange Bowl is official. This would be incredible if true! Billybud and I will definitely be cheering for different outcomes

I thought NIU would get #17 based on the amount of politicking. NIU was ranked 16th in the Coaches' Poll and the Big 12 was much more anti-NIU/pro-Oklahoma than the MAC was anti-OU/pro-NIU. Northern Illinois must have gotten a boost in the Harris Poll and an increase in their computer rank.

If this is true, I'm not sure what to make of the game itself. I respect NIU but I have no frame of reference when it comes to comparing them and Florida State. NIU would have to find a way to neutralize FSU's defensive line and their speed. Their defense will have to step it up as well, as they are a mediocre unit. But, they have Jordan Lynch and you never know how a defense responds to any given running QB. It would be an entertaining game I think contrary to what ESPN will say tonight, at least it'll be interesting pre-game. I'm not sure if NIU can hang or not, which is what makes it interesting.

It's funny, college football is the only sport that I know of that doesn't value the underdog in the abstract. People will really be hating on Northern Illinois for stealing a bid from Oklahoma. Oklahoma is obviously the better team with the better resume, but rules are rules and NIU got in fair and square. I say America should cheer NIU and congratulate them for an 11-1 season instead of dumping on them. Nobody dumps on George Mason's bad losses when they go on a miracle run in the NCAA tournament, they cheer for them enthusiastically.

[Spence]

I don't think NIU deserves to play in the Orange. This isn't a recent TCU or Boise State. Florida State will eat their lunch. I wouldn't be surprised if the line was -25.

[donovan]

I know how excited NIU must be. I get that and my comments have nothing to do with Northern Illinois. They are going to have an experience of a lifetime. But if anyone for one moment thinks that this makes any sense, then they are crazier than a peach orchard boar. I am sure the Orange Bowl can accommodate the 12 people interested in the FSU NIU match up. This BCS is beyond belief and to think it has defenders.... The real loser in all of this is FSU. Florida State play a very weak schedule. Nothing wrong with that....Boise State became an expert in that. But the fact remains, FSU did. Now they go to the Orange Bowl to play a team that, in my opinion, is going to be embarrassed. If not, then FSU is weaker than we thought.

Here is another bowl game that had better get a gigantic promotion budget.

[Derek]

I know how excited NIU must be. I get that and my comments have nothing to do with Northern Illinois. They are going to have an experience of a lifetime. But if anyone for one moment thinks that this makes any sense, then they are crazier than a peach orchard boar. I am sure the Orange Bowl can accommodate the 12 people interested in the FSU NIU match up. This BCS is beyond belief and to think it has defenders.... The real loser in all of this is FSU. Florida State play a very weak schedule. Nothing wrong with that....Boise State became an expert in that. But the fact remains, FSU did. Now they go to the Orange Bowl to play a team that, in my opinion, is going to be embarrassed. If not, then FSU is weaker than we thought.

Here is another bowl game that had better get a gigantic promotion budget.

Indeed!!

NIU is a WEIRD choice. IMO.

[Derek]

I wish you were right Eric. I think Ga/Mich would have been a good game to watch. I don't know that they have ever faced each other. Of course Nebraska is the same way.

I'm excited about Nebraska as well....as excited as I could be I guess.

I feel that the Sugar should have gone to Ga.

[Derek]

I don't think NIU deserves to play in the Orange. This isn't a recent TCU or Boise State. Florida State will eat their lunch. I wouldn't be surprised if the line was -25.

It might be worse than Ga/Hawaii or USC/Illinois in 2007.

[Spence]

I know how excited NIU must be. I get that and my comments have nothing to do with Northern Illinois. They are going to have an experience of a lifetime. But if anyone for one moment thinks that this makes any sense, then they are crazier than a peach orchard boar. I am sure the Orange Bowl can accommodate the 12 people interested in the FSU NIU match up. This BCS is beyond belief and to think it has defenders.... The real loser in all of this is FSU. Florida State play a very weak schedule. Nothing wrong with that....Boise State became an expert in that. But the fact remains, FSU did. Now they go to the Orange Bowl to play a team that, in my opinion, is going to be embarrassed. If not, then FSU is weaker than we thought.

Here is another bowl game that had better get a gigantic promotion budget.

That is right. I don't have a problem with any team making the BCS that has a resume that works. NIU just isn't that team. It is a good experience for their fans and alumni. It will be a good experience for the players - before the game. It will be one of the least watched games in the history of college football.

[Eric]

I know how excited NIU must be. I get that and my comments have nothing to do with Northern Illinois. They are going to have an experience of a lifetime. But if anyone for one moment thinks that this makes any sense, then they are crazier than a peach orchard boar. I am sure the Orange Bowl can accommodate the 12 people interested in the FSU NIU match up. This BCS is beyond belief and to think it has defenders.... The real loser in all of this is FSU. Florida State play a very weak schedule. Nothing wrong with that....Boise State became an expert in that. But the fact remains, FSU did. Now they go to the Orange Bowl to play a team that, in my opinion, is going to be embarrassed. If not, then FSU is weaker than we thought.

Here is another bowl game that had better get a gigantic promotion budget.

That is right. I don't have a problem with any team making the BCS that has a resume that works. NIU just isn't that team. It is a good experience for their fans and alumni. It will be a good experience for the players - before the game. It will be one of the least watched games in the history of college football.

I'll be watching

I'm never going to argue Northern Illinois' case. Jordan Lynch was on national TV last night and he struggled to cobble an argument together. But I think that's all in the past now. Oklahoma plays Texas A&M, who is even better than Florida State, and maybe as good as Florida. Sure the Sugar is more "prestigious", but what is bowl prestige if not the caliber of the two teams competing in it? So I think of it as not a big harm / not a big foul. The little guys have been lambasted throughout this systems' history, so NIU backing into the top 16 is a little cosmic justice in my view. Maybe not fair to Oklahoma, but neither is Wisconsin or Louisville going ahead of them.

I think NIU will hold their own. They might lose by around 20 points. I don't consider that blowout/embarrassment territory. But we'll see. I'm expecting them to put up a whale of a first half and then get blown out in the second half as soon as Florida State's depth and overall talent starts to assert itself. But I think the game is very interesting at least beforehand, and I don't say that as a MAC fan. If Boise State got in with a 10-2 record, I'd be just as intrigued to see them take on a power school.

[Spence]

I'll watch too, but I watch them all.

I'm expecting them to put up a whale of a first half and then get blown out in the second half as soon as Florida State's depth and overall talent starts to assert itself. But I think the game is very interesting at least beforehand, and I don't say that as a MAC fan.

Isn't that how it always is when a MAC team plays a good football team? I understand why people try and draw the comparisons to some of the "BCS busters". I don't think it holds water. Those teams proved they were good on the field and over time. NIU lost to a pathetic Iowa team. The beat an even more pathetic Kansas team. That is their signature out of conference win. The other teams that busted had some signature wins. If they go undefeated, then I say let them prove how good they are and let them play FSU or any of the others. I just don't see any real comparison to any of the "BCS buster" teams that have played before them. The resume just doesn't justify it.