Rutgers and Maryland possibly to Big Ten? Oh my, oh no!

[Eric]

Oklahoma and Okie light are hard to separate...and now, with the grant of media rights in place for the next 13 years, it would be impossibly expensive for a Big 12 team to leave. The media rights for a Big 12 team are assigned to the Big 12 conference no matter where a team might go...that is a stopper.

That's interesting. I didn't know that. So scratch Oklahoma off the list

[Eric]

Well it's official. Maryland is joining and Rutgers soon to follow. It's going to be weird. But after listening to different views, I'm a little more inclined to welcome the addition than I was last week.

One good thing though is that this paves the way for a Big 10 lacrosse conference (I'm a fan of the sport and played it once upon a time). Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Rutgers, and Maryland will all have teams with Maryland the one with the most prominence. If they can convince one more member to join (Northwestern, Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan State, somebody!) then they can gain an automatic bid (the current floor for having an automatic bid to the tournament is 6 members). Until they can find a sixth member though Rutgers and Maryland will probably slug it out as a lacrosse-only member of another conference or as an independent.

A lot of people are dumping on Maryland's football program. I don't really know why. They would have easily been in a bowl game this year if they weren't reduced to their fourth string QB. I don't think this is bad from a football, basketball, or general sports angle. I think it's bad for the tradition that Maryland had built up.

[Swamp Daddy]

Blogs and fan sites are going wild with this latest round of musical chairs. I can't keep up with it.

Swamp Daddy

[billybud]

FSU guys aren't wringing their hands over Marryland leaving....they think almost anybody is an upgrade and there is no rivalry nor feeling for the Terps....

What is interesting is if the SEC calls to a couple of teams...that would be destructive....FSU is ready to scat if it comes to that and there is a new home to go to....

[Spence]

FSU guys aren't wringing their hands over Marryland leaving....they think almost anybody is an upgrade and there is no rivalry nor feeling for the Terps....

What is interesting is if the SEC calls to a couple of teams...that would be destructive....FSU is ready to scat if it comes to that and there is a new home to go to....

I think Florida State is history in the ACC as soon as the right situation comes along. I don't think it will be long. I think the B-12 is going to make the next expansion move. Followed by the SEC and PAC. I think that we will see 16 team conferences in the next five years.

[Eric]

The Big 12 currently has 10 teams, so if they were to go "conservative" and jump to 14 teams to mimic the Big 10 and the SEC, my guess would be Cincinnati, Louisville, Florida State, and then they'll choose between SMU, BYU, and Houston (most likely BYU). Then you could have an East and a West division:

East
------
Florida State
West Virginia
Cincinnati
Louisville
Iowa State
Baylor
TCU

West
-------
Kansas
Kansas State
Texas
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
BYU

I think it would be bizarre to have a team from Utah and Florida in the same conference, but overall this fit isn't that bad for Florida State. I would imagine that they would have a larger travel bill by losing their closer counterparts, but it's not an obscenely larger travel bill. I believe going from Tallahassee to Virginia is the same distance as it is to Oklahoma. Tallahassee to Kansas is shorter than going to New York and Boston. Traveling to Lubbock is shorter than going to Storrs, Connecticut (when they add UConn).

[Brian Roastbeef]

I think Florida State is history in the ACC as soon as the right situation comes along. I don't think it will be long. I think the B-12 is going to make the next expansion move. Followed by the SEC and PAC. I think that we will see 16 team conferences in the next five years.

It may very well be the case, but what we're seeing now also appears to be the delay in what was once considered the clear inevitability of 16 team+ Superconferences. We're no longer just raiding the non-BCS conferences and sitting ducks. Teed off teams from the big gainers are now looking at outside options, which could mean the beneficiaries are the once left for dead conferences such as the Big 12 (that the Big East couldn't make a respectable play for a clearly disgruntled Maryland in an attempt to regain their hoops cred just shows how completely FUBAR that whole organization is). The backlash is still there. Big Cheeses don't want to lose their position, football and basketball schools are wary of being overrun by the other, and nobody is comfortable with the dying regionalism but the only way to beat it is to join it.

Right now, if anything it appears more akin to an annual "silly season" such as they have in Nascar... Kenseth to Gibbs, Harvick to Stewart-Haas, Rutgers and Maryland to Big Ten. What will be the big story next year; Biffle to Waltrip or FSU to Big 12? That may be sorted back to the inevitable rise of the Superconferences within another five years but right now that is mostly determinant on how brutally punishing the exit fees are in the deals currently being made.

[Spence]

If Maryland holds out long enough there may not be an ACC to pay any exit fees too.

[Brian Roastbeef]

It's hard to predict though, isn't it? I could probably dig back a little bit to find posts from many of us, myself included assuming the Big 12 was all but gone. Now, who knows. Florida St. could go there if the SEC can't fit them in around internal politics. Does a Big 12 back to 12 or more by 2016 or so really seem all that far-fetched now?

Similarly hard to predict where the ACC heads. Maybe Maryland bolting, possibly FSU next, and an expanding Big Ten could mean they're the next to get raided, but it's also very likely they survive mostly intact just looking a bit more like the c. 2002 Big East. But as I said, hard to predict.

Right now it appears the Big Ten and SEC are pressuring everybody near them in all directions. Thing about silly season is that it only takes one crazy unexpected surprise to change the entire landscape. I never thought in a million years I would see Matt Kenseth drive anything other than a Ford, but next February that will happen.


I will say one other thing though that most don't really mention in regard to these sorts of shifts. I read today from somebody at Nebraska who said that since joining the Big Ten the academic opportunities there have just gone through the roof. Their partnership at sharing resources with in-conference schools is apparently just well above and beyond any arrangement Nebraska had prior to that. Football brings the cash, but there are still the papers and researchers to think of that encourage the high-end donors and the scholars. Full range of the libraries, courses, and shared research with places like Michigan and Northwestern are a respectable hole card that can't be ignored. Perhaps the key for other conferences to stay in the game is to increase the appeal in these efforts off of the field and away from the TV cameras.

[Spence]

Sports isn't a revenue cow in the B-10. They pay for themselves and sometimes give a little back. Football at Ohio State gave $500.000 to the new library fund a few years ago. It is cool, but no huge deal. The research grants and studies they do are worth Billions. Most B-10 schools are excellent grad schools. I believe the PAC is the same. That is the real revenue stream for Big 10 schools.

I don't like the conference shifting, but if something good comes from them it could put eight to ten team in two divisions in each conference which in reality is two eight or ten team conferences that play a championship game between them. It is sending cfb back to the future.

[Brian Roastbeef]

Indeed, that's a far cry from what that individual described of Nebraska before the shift, which was a "football team with a university attached." I'm not a fan of the fluid conferences either, and I still stand by what I said in the other thread about how all this undermines the appeal of the rivalries I've known since I was a kid and the hard-grinding regional style that makes Midwestern football distinct and fun to watch. Yet if academic excellence and the opportunity to get in on some of the huge conference wide research programs is the motivating force from their end, then I can't blame any of these schools for jumping in.

[Spence]

You can get a good education at most any school. The B-10 schools are more known for their grad programs than undergrad. I'm sure this is the case with most schools, but I know the B-10 schools really use their network to get their grads jobs. I don't like all these schools messing with traditions, but it doesn't really matter what I like. Jim Delany even tried to get rid of Ohio State - Michigan. That is until fans and alumni had an absolute fit and the came up with the cross divisional rivalry games.