Congrove has Houston ranked #2

[grinder]

Kinda surprised when I read it. With a SOS ranked 104.

I don't see them better than Bama, OK State, Boise, or Stanford.

[Spence]

I would agree, but who really knows?

[Eric]

The CCR tends to be more forgiving to teams with better W-L records. It's been that way as far as I can recall.

[billybud]

Yep...I've been arguing against the CCR for years. Heavily favors win-loss record vs value of the wins. I do not think that, like Sagarin, the CCR tracks wins against top 10 and top 30 to give a SOS weighting.

[billybud]

If you use CCR and sort on "power', you will see he has Houston ranked #9 on power. Sagarin's Predictor scores fall along the straight "power" method while his ELO Chess (BCS) aren't far off but, because of not recording scoring differentials) do show some differences.

Sagarin's Elo Chess ranking of Houston is #8, not too different from CCR's "power ranking" of Houston at #9.

Soooo..the CCR is actually ranking Houston at #2 but also saying that they aren't as poweful as the handful of teams just below them in the rankings.

[Vileborg]

When you take margin of victory out of the equation you normalize and restrict the possible results. How many ways can you rank teams only based off won/loss and strength of schedule. There is no way to make it look good when your hands are tied by the BCS. They say it's too avoid running up the score but you could put a 20 point margin of victory on it and offer severe diminishing returns for anything over 20. It won't stop Wisconsin from running up 70 to impress the voters and it won't stop Va Tech from taking a knee, up two scores at the opponents 1, if they can run out the clock.

[donovan]

My understanding is there is a margin of victory factor. It stops at a certain spread, but it is in the equation.

Remember when Mr. Congrove came on here and gave what I thought was a very enlightening expression of what he was doing?

One of the telltale signs was he was asked to do the BCS but he would have to change something in his formulation. So...he is impressive enough to ask him to participate BUT you have to change something. You only change things when you want alter the basis on which the outcome is made, may make it more accurate or you are a crook. There may be something in between...but a small maybe.

[billybud]

Congrove never gave us a glimpse of his working algorithmns...and I understand why not.

He talked about his ranking and that it differed from his power ranking...but we have no idea WHY Houston is #2...nor why everybody else has them lower.

[donovan]

You probably are right... Maybe Houston is number two because they are undefeated, how silly.

[billybud]

Yep..silly. The Ball State syndrome at its beat.

With an SOS of 111...Houston is a one eyed man in the land of the blind, the tallest midget, the..well, you know what I'm saying.

[Eric]

Yep..silly. The Ball State syndrome at its beat.

With an SOS of 111...Houston is a one eyed man in the land of the blind, the tallest midget, the..well, you know what I'm saying.

To be fair to Houston, I think this schedule will end up being more difficult than that Ball State team. They will have faced Marshall, Tulsa, Southern Miss, UCLA, and SMU. 2008 Ball State had....Central Michigan and Navy.

[Spence]

Congrove never gave us a glimpse of his working algorithmns...and I understand why not.

He talked about his ranking and that it differed from his power ranking...but we have no idea WHY Houston is #2...nor why everybody else has them lower.

I don't see him ever revealing his algorithmns. He has said that he sometimes doesn't agree with his own results. I find that not only refreshing, but It also shows that he doesn't try to manipulate his results to what public opinion dictates. I'm sure just like the humans, computer rankings are not always going to be accurate, but I also know a few years ago when Alabama was going to crush Utah, it didn't happen. I think many people here would have question a ranking that had Utah ranked in front of Alabama before the games were played.

That is why I don't think two teams from the same conference should play, because you just don't know who the better teams are unless they play. Since it is impossible to play everyone, you have to give a shot to the team who hasn't lost to the #1 team.

[donovan]

Yep..silly. The Ball State syndrome at its beat.

With an SOS of 111...Houston is a one eyed man in the land of the blind, the tallest midget, the..well, you know what I'm saying.

..indeed I do...wished I could truly disagree with you...but...I will resist here on the board.

Good win for FSU. I watched the OSU Oregon game...One team is so bad and the other fairly good. OSU is so bad it was hard for Oregon to be uncivil..which is difficult for them.

[Grayghost]

When it comes to rankings I currently have Houston at #6, and this is mostly due to their schedule. I use a formula for my rankings so my opinion doesn't enter into it. It is based on the rank of the team played, home or road, and margin of victory. Now there are a few flaws in my system as I don't rank FCS teams so that when an FBS school plays one I use the same arbitrary rank for every FCS school, hmmm, I guess this is probably the only place where my opinion does enter in. I have problems with schools that play FCS teams, and I punish them for it, but at least every school that plays an FCS team recieves the same punishment, so it is at least fair punishment...and god forbid a FBS team loses to an FCS team. Therefore Houston recieved the same penalties for playing an FCS team as Alabama, LSU, and Virginia Tech did. Boise, Stanford, and Oklahoma St. did not play FCS schools...good for them. I currently have Oklahoma St. ranked ahead of Alabama, and if they win out over Oklahoma, I think they, instead of Alabama should play in the NCG. But if the BCS still has Alabama ranked #2 after this weekend, well they should play...cause thems the rules.

Don't get me wrong...I hate the BCS and am a firm Playoff advocate, but if the BCS says that LSU and Alabama should play so be it. Will I watch it...no, I have no interest in watching a rematch. Also, outside of the SEC, and ESPN, most people will either be pissed, or disinterested. The pissed will watch the game hoping for another boring, low scoring defensive battle, and root for Alabama, so that they can say that nothing was really proved...they are 1-1 against each other...split the title...and I wouldn't disagree with that. As for Houston, well, they should get a BCS bowl birth...the first ever for CUSA, but not a shot at the title.

There are things that I want to change in my formula that would make it more accurate, but would be very time consuming, and I don't write code, so I can't come up with some nifty program to do it for me. I am still considering doing it, even though for me it would be a manual process, but if it means more accurate, I am all for that.

Well, I could babble on about rankings, the BCS, and a playoff system ad nauseam...but I wont.

[donovan]

Why on the earth would I want an formula on a subjective subject where my opinion was not the predominant factor. My opinion is the only one I care about. If I wanted an opinion that regurgitated some algorithm that is a secret and only know to the members of the Illuminati and the Tallahassee Democrat. (and I am not talking newspaper here, either.)