BCS Poll

[RazorHawk]

I put this question out earlier today on a different sight when some big 12 gentlemen were debating the same song and dance. My question was--
"When was the last time a team in the big 12 had a undefeated season?" and "Name the conference that has had a team go undefeated in 2006,7,8--
It was the WAC!!2006--BOISE STATE, 2007--HAWAII, 2008-- BOISE STATE (I know they are 11-0 right now, Friday they finish with FRESNO STATE 12-0)
and hey didn't they beat o.u.the last time?


GO WARRIORS!!! GO BRONCOS!!!!

Probably makes the point for those that feel the WAC, as a conference, is weak.

[billybud]

Well...

If you don't play anybody and are half way decent, you have a good chance of having a gaudy win-loss record. Statistically, teams that play a Top 25 team have less than a thirty percent chance of winning (a Top 10 team goes to a 20 percent chance). Play three of these guys and you play a much different schedule than a team that plays a low risk and very weak schedule...(Boise's SOS ranked #118).

The MWC is so very weak...on power rankings, the lowest ranked ACC team of 12 is ranked more powerful than every team in the MWC except Boise State...imagine being able to play a conference where every team in your conference is weaker than the weakest of the ACC? Instead of sweating out becoming bowl eligible, Miami would be undefeated and talking a national championship.

Boise, as well as Hawaii last year, is a product of the "Mount Union Effect". Teams with great records from weak conferences are ranked higher than they should be, teams with several losses from strong conferences are ranked lower than they should be...based on the actual team strength. The record is rewarded far and above the slight downtick for SOS. The Koi's in the goldfish pond get tagged as sharks.

[Spence]

Mount Union is a tiny little school in Alliance, Ohio. They aren't a big fish in a small pond. They are just really good in their division.

[warrriorsfan808]

Here is a shock for you -- Last year when Hawaii went undefeated michigan state was suppos to come out here and play us, but around June/July they didn't want to play us any more? Was it because we were going to be such a weak team? Or was it because Hawaii was not like it used to be when Coach Von Appen had the team and you could almost garantee a win. Either way m.s. paid 6 figures to back out of that game leaving us with a 12 game schedule instead of a 13 game schedule.

Well...

If you don't play anybody and are half way decent, you have a good chance of having a gaudy win-loss record. Statistically, teams that play a Top 25 team have less than a thirty percent chance of winning (a Top 10 team goes to a 20 percent chance). Play three of these guys and you play a much different schedule than a team that plays a low risk and very weak schedule...(Boise's SOS ranked #118).

The MWC is so very weak...on power rankings, the lowest ranked ACC team of 12 is ranked more powerful than every team in the MWC except Boise State...imagine being able to play a conference where every team in your conference is weaker than the weakest of the ACC? Instead of sweating out becoming bowl eligible, Miami would be undefeated and talking a national championship.

Boise, as well as Hawaii last year, is a product of the "Mount Union Effect". Teams with great records from weak conferences are ranked higher than they should be, teams with several losses from strong conferences are ranked lower than they should be...based on the actual team strength. The record is rewarded far and above the slight downtick for SOS. The Koi's in the goldfish pond get tagged as sharks.

[billybud]

How'd that bowl game go for Hawaii? Put the warriors in the SEC, than let's talk. Hawaii went undefeated because they played a weak, weak schedule. Put them against a team like Georgia and the truth comes out. Hawaii was a Koi...Georgia grinned a toothy grin and snapped them up in a bite.

Since 2000, Hawaii has beaten two BCS conference teams with a winning record. I'll withold my vote on Hawaii as atop team until they earn it on the field.

[billybud]

Mount Union is a tiny little school in Alliance, Ohio. They aren't a big fish in a small pond. They are just really good in their division.

Oh..I disagree. They are a prime example of a big fish in a farm pond. Mount Union was used in a very widely distributed essay on records vs actual strength vs how computers capture that strength....Mt. Union went 15-0 in 2006 and were national champions.

Does that mean that they would even go .500 playing up in a IIA conference like the Southern or Missouri Valley? The essay pointed out that flashy win numbers have to be associated with their context. Play in a very weak conference like the MWC, and a large number of wins makes you the Koi in the pond...not the Great White on the reef.

The Mount Union effect came up when a computer program that lumped divisions together, had Mount Union as stronger than teams like Iowa and Wisconsin. Many computers do not mix divisions because of the problems of huge SOS differences. Sagarin's BCS does mix divisions and, if you follow computer geek discussions, this methodology still causes ranking anomalies (the Mount Union effect).

Currently Sagarin has James Madison ranked above...LSU, Pitt, WVU, USF, Wisconsin, Northwestern..and the like. I would put money on any of these teams straight up against James Madison.

The problem in the rankings seems to lie with an over evaluation of a win record versus actual strength of schedule...James Madison is 10-1, but haven't beaten anybody. There only loss? To Duke, 7-31. So Sagarin has a team who looks good on record but who has played one BCS team, Duke, and was murdered. Yet he has them ranked above decent IA teams...it is the Mount Union effect.

(and Duke is 1-6 in the ACC)

[donovan]

Petition to kick us out of the bourgeoisie 120 then we will all be happy. Or do you need little puppy dogs to kick so you can build up you Michael Vickien ego.

[billybud]

Bite me! LOL

[donovan]

Bite me! LOL

Just as soon as I get a tetanus booster

[Howdy]

How'd that bowl game go for Hawaii? Put the warriors in the SEC, than let's talk. Hawaii went undefeated because they played a weak, weak schedule. Put them against a team like Georgia and the truth comes out. Hawaii was a Koi...Georgia grinned a toothy grin and snapped them up in a bite.

Since 2000, Hawaii has beaten two BCS conference teams with a winning record. I'll withold my vote on Hawaii as atop team until they earn it on the field.

Do you think that distance they have to travel has some bearing on this.

[billybud]

Nope...I think playing a much stronger defense than they were used to had a bearing....

[donovan]

Nope...I think playing a much stronger defense than they were used to had a bearing....

I am in no mood to agree with my friend Mr. Billybud....but in this case......

[donovan]

Happy Thanksgiving to you all. You are friends, all of you. Donovan

[warrriorsfan808]

Well if we could get ya'll to come out here that would be just fine, we traveled to florida this year to play them, yeah they kicked our butt, but guess what their head coach said " you will never ever ever catch us going to HAWAII to play a game"-- WHY NOT !!!-- Afraid of the travel? or is like any other team that plays at home they play better!!! I remember when we played the UNIVERSITY OF WYOMING COWBOYS just getting there is a ordeal. You fly HONOLULU to L.A.; L.A. to DENVER get on a bus for 8 to 10 hours, get there the day before the game then play!!!! ALABAMA has come out here, their fans are the
best I've had the pleasure of meeting and they put a sh&* load of RED AND WHITE in the stands!!! So come on out HAWAII is calling.

How'd that bowl game go for Hawaii? Put the warriors in the SEC, than let's talk. Hawaii went undefeated because they played a weak, weak schedule. Put them against a team like Georgia and the truth comes out. Hawaii was a Koi...Georgia grinned a toothy grin and snapped them up in a bite.

Since 2000, Hawaii has beaten two BCS conference teams with a winning record. I'll withold my vote on Hawaii as atop team until they earn it on the field.

[billybud]

There is an extreme cost of travel, without any good reason to incur the cost, for East Coast teams to travel to Hawaii for a game. If FSU was a west coast team, traveling to Hawaii would be no more difficult than having to fly to Boston (and the weather is a lot better). I would think that Hawaii's best chances for scheduling will remain with the Pac 10.

As an OOC match, Hawaii doesn't offer much other than a nice locale for teams like FSU. There are many teams available that cost the school a lot less in travel...FSU has WVU, Oklahoma, BYU, Air Force on the schedule, all of which involve travel out of the region. But not out of the continental US.