Don't Understand Congrove's Algorithmns

[Derek]

...they didn't get the same respect because O State doesn't have the SEC aura.

Chime in Donovan...a one, a two..

For that they can be grateful...

What I find amusing is when it comes to polling...I constantly here the cry of take the human element out of it...leave it to the computers (understanding...I not buy into the theory that computer programing is without prejudice...) but the cry goes on...they we hear the chant....My school is not respected....I think respect is a human emotion....not sure computers can respect....well..up here in Microsoft country there may be some affairs of a salacious nature with computers...I digress...anyway.......

My money is that the PAC Ten will be shaken up in the standings by years end....think the shuffle is on...

Watch for UCLA and California....

While it's true the OSU does not have the SEC aura, especially since they have lost 2 consecutive NC games to SEC teams. I STILL say there is a bias, especially on ESPN, against those "redneck" states.

Look at the polls that have Oklahoma ranked above USC and Georgia, both teams ended the season with HUGE convincing wins, and Oklahoma closes the season with yet another BCS bowl loss. Not surprising, but nevertheless it was a loss.

YET, Oklahoma is ranked ahead of them in some polls.

And I still stand by my statement of removing the human polling from equations after week 6. You can't make someone's conference a part of a formula. Not one that would pass public scrutiny anyway.

[Spence]

It isn't where a team starts, it is where it finishes. Ball State may in fact be a stronger team then all those mentioned. I believe that a mid major team can have a season where they could compete with the best in the nation. The problem is we have no way of telling because there is no legit way of comparing. Billybud, I understand the sentiment that drives your opinion as the same sort of sentiment drives mine. Still there was a time when Florida State was better then the national experts gave them credit for being. The difference between them and a team like Ball State is that FSU put together lots of years in a row of being good and was able to make the climb. The current system does not allow for "one hit wonders" it makes you have to have a good team over several years to climb the ladder and allows the top programs traditionally several down years before they fall from grace. Until CFB changes the way games are scheduled we will never have a system that allows for teams to prove themselves in the same season they are good.

[billybud]

Spence...certainly I agree...The problem with Ball State is that they have never done anything..they have never beaten a team outside the MAC...and I mean NEVER. And that is a huge statement. How many teams have never, in a lifetime, not won one game outside of their conference?

Soooo...what Eric is discussing is "potential"...and as Bobby says..."potential means they ain't done it yet."

So..it is speculation...

For a team like Ball State to get any respect...they need to beat someone outside the MAC even a mid tier BCS team...and then it is not speculation, it has been earned on the field.

Until it is more than speculation, when Eric says they can beat Miami, I chuckle at his optimism...it's opinion. I don't know Ball State like he does, and he may not know Miami as I do...so we differ.

[Spence]

Spence...certainly I agree...The problem with Ball State is that they have never done anything..they have never beaten a team outside the MAC...and I mean NEVER. And that is a huge statement. How many teams have never, in a lifetime, not won one game outside of their conference?

Soooo...what Eric is discussing is "potential"...and as Bobby says..."potential means they ain't done it yet."

So..it is speculation...

For a team like Ball State to get any respect...they need to beat someone outside the MAC even a mid tier BCS team...and then it is not speculation, it has been earned on the field.

Until it is more than speculation, when Eric says they can beat Miami, I chuckle at his optimism...it's opinion. I don't know Ball State like he does, and he may not know Miami as I do...so we differ.

The problem for Ball State is the same for all mid majors. Boise State beat Oklahoma. A top 10 ranked Oklahoma. It raised some eyebrows, but it was still considered an upset. Appy State beat Michigan - considered an upset. We really never considered either team to be peers of their major counterpart even though they were at least the better team that day. People tend to blame the polls, ESPN, the computers, or whoever. It isn't any of those, it is the fact that we have no way to accurately compare the teams. We do not have the information to do it. So when Congrove says Ball State is good, we have only history and opinion to refute it. I'm not sure that is enough to dismiss anyone. Will Ball State be a championship contender? No, but not because they may not be a great team - they won't contend because they do not have a history of consistently beating great teams (or teams we consider great). So basically we are using opinion, no matter what historical facts we have to back them up, to dismiss them from consideration. So maybe Congrove's rankings are dead on the money, maybe they are not. We will never know until CFB decides to take scheduling away from the schools and make up a national schedule much the way the NFL creates their schedules. Teams need to play their peers and their conference schedule to determine who the good teams are each year. Then a computer could give you accurate rankings in most cases. Not 75% accurate, but 90-95% accurate.

[Eric]

Eric...where USF gets respect is that they beat 11 win WVU teams back to back the last two years...Cincinnati may have beat USF...but they didn't beat the conference big dog...

Beating a WVU or Ohio State gets you respect...

The thing I never got about your point of view, is that wins count a lot more than losses. Who you beat means everything while who you lose to is a blip on the radar. Cincinnati's body of work is comparable to USF's, if you base it on the conference records and head-to-head matchups. Head-to-head matchups aren't "transitives", I was only making a point that Cincy's performance, overall, has been comparable.

Based on how the two teams have played, I can say that USF matches up against West Virginia just about as good as anybody. Cincinnati could have defeated Auburn last year (don't chuckle at that ). What's irritating to me is that I try to tell everybody about Brian Kelly, and so far, only Spence has listened . Cincy will win the Big East once Pat White graduates, the Bearcat QB issue is resolved, and the defense is a little bit older; that year should be 2009. They don't exactly have the pieces in place this year so I expect an 8-4 or 9-3 record.

[Eric]

Spence...certainly I agree...The problem with Ball State is that they have never done anything..they have never beaten a team outside the MAC...and I mean NEVER. And that is a huge statement. How many teams have never, in a lifetime, not won one game outside of their conference?

Well, technically.....

They defeated Navy last year and beat UConn three straight years when the Huskies moved up to the FBS earlier this decade. They had a few wins in the 70's. Not against major conferences, though, which is what I think you meant.

[Spence]

I believe Kelly is a great coach because I have seen him coach lots of times. I felt the same way with Urban Meyer at BG. Earl Bruce, the coach that took over for Woody at Ohio State, said long ago that Meyer would be good in a good situation and great in a great situation. Florida is a great situation. I don't know if Kelly has that in Cincy. Cincinnati has great high school football. Some of the best teams in the country year in and out. The problem for UC is that those kids rarely go there. Notre Dame gets most of the really high profile kids out of Cincy. Ohio State and Michigan get a few. Even most of the lower tier guys in Cincy go to the Purdue's and Indiana's of the B-10. Kelly has to compete with Notre Dame, Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, West Virginia, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan St. as well as with Louisville, Pitt, and Kentucky every year. Tennessee, Florida, USC and other high profile programs cherry pick the area. Phil Fulmer recruits Cincy often. I don't know if the Cincy job will ever be more then a stepping stone job for that reason. Kelly will be successful at Cincy, it is just how successful we have a difference of opinion on. I don't think Kelly can lock up the city and he needs to lock it down if he wants to make Cincy into a power program. Cincy isn't a good situation for a coach other then it is a place to get noticed by someone. I think it will always be that way.

[billybud]

I think that USF gets more attention because of the Cinderella effect...heck, USF didn't have a football team until 1997...didn't move to IA until 2001, and now they have been ranked.

In college football, that is lightspeed movement.

[CFP Admin]

Preseason 2008 Congrove power rankings...

He has Ball State as more powerful than Purdue, Michigan State, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Northwestern, Minnesota...

You are misinterpreting the data. There aren't any "Preseason 2008 Congrove power rankings". You're looking at the "Projected Final Regular Season
CCR Top 120". And as it plainly says on the page, "These are NOT presented in order of team power. They reflect a combination of team power and W-L record. The computer "played" each game that is currently scheduled to compute each teams' won-loss record and a projected unbiased ranking."

Further, those rankings do not infer that Ball State is "more powerful" than Purdue, Alabama, Michigan State, etc. Those "rankings" only say that a 9-3 Ball State "ranks" higher than a 7-5 Alabama

Go the current rankings at http://www.collegefootballpoll.com/current_congrove_rankings.html. That's where you will get a better assessment of power. There, you'll find Ball State at #64 with a power rating of 64.97. Alabama is #29 with a power rating of 74.75. Purdue is #51 with a power rating of 70.02. I won't go through the whole list.

Here is another mistake which is commonly made - Most people think they can look at FAU's power rating, for instance, and say that they would lose to Georgia by "x" amount. However, since those two teams don't play each other, the computer hasn't even taken that matchup into consideration. IF Georgia was on FAU's schedule, the numbers would change for both teams and only then could you draw a conclusion of which team would win by how much.

Hopefully, that clears up the confusion.

[billybud]

Thank you for the time you took to educate us (those of us who are educable..LOL).

I have been trying to understand the CCR...and you have certainly helped me...

[CFP Admin]

Thank you for the time you took to educate us (those of us who are educable..LOL).

I have been trying to understand the CCR...and you have certainly helped me...

You are certainly welcome - glad I could actually clear something up without making it more confusing. I would hazzard a guess that the majority of people who look at such data make the same mistakes.

[donovan]

Sometimes it is good to not be understood....I have references on that subject...most are related to me.

[Eric]

Sometimes it is good to not be understood....I have references on that subject...most are related to me.

I agree

[Jason G]

I understand what the CCR did with final projected ranking but I don't understand this whole preseason power ranking thing.

I guess I thought that the computers were supposed to be totally objective. Therefore, if nobody has played any games, shouldn't every team be equal at this point? How can anybody's SOS have been determined before a game was ever played?

I just don't think there should ever be polls, computer or especially human, until at least 5 weeks into the season.

Projections and predictions are one thing but rankings are another.

Maybe I just don't understand.

[donovan]

I am always amazed at the statement that computers are totally objective. I worked with people that believed that. The lived in a world of self deception, in my opinion. It seems to me that programmers may try to be consistent with calculations, make sure that cover all the variables, etc....but the philosophy that is the basis of their programing on a given subject is never objective....not agreed upon by all. The main point is objectivenesses is not in of itself a virtue.

I would be interested in Mr. Congrove's take on this subject.