2006 Conference Schedule Breakdown

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colorado_loves_football

Postby colorado_loves_football » Tue Apr 11, 2006 4:02 pm

Spence wrote:Western Kentucky or no other 1-AA would beat a D-1 conference champ. The MAC doesn't get the respect they deserve for playing top level competition. the MAC could go the route of other conferences and schedule to make their win-loss record good. They don't do that, they make the effort to play top level OAK competition and should be commended for it.

I know they have taken their lumps in a lot of those games, but they have also won some and played a lot of them tight. There is more of a difference in 1-AA and D-1 then there is between the mid majors and the majors. In my opinion the MAC is making great strides in trying to become competitive with the top level talent in CFB.

I hear people say that a team like (for example 2004 USC) could beat (insert bad NFL team here). It isn't true. The worst NFL team would kill the best college football team. It wouldn't be close. While the talent level between D-1 and D-1AA isn't as wide as NFL to D-1 there is a difference in team talent. There aren't enough guys that fall through the cracks to make very many teams competitive. The exception being a team like Marshall a few years ago, but their top guys were guys who would have been D-1 had they not had bad reputations.

No one is going to confuse the MAC with the SEC, but they are head a shoulders better then any 1AA conference.

Not sure if you are aware but W. Kentucky is scheduled to make the 'jump' to I-A I think beginning in 2007. They will be a Sun Belt addition. I don't know why we are comparing I-A to I-AA I think it's like comparing apples to oranges. I'm sure there are some really good I-AA schools, and I'm sure the 'best' could play against some of the 'worst' I-A schools, and likely win. There might even be a division II school that could compete against a bad I-A school. And we aren't talking about the pros. I am not convinced that a good I-A school couldn't beat a bad pro team. The reason why is so much of what determines a team's success is their coaching. I think the Houston Texans of last year likely lose to Texas, but that's just my opinion. I'm hoping Vince Young goes to Houston, they need a QB.

Now, as far as the information posted, I would like to make a few comments if that's ok. First of all you are all jumping to conclusions, far too early about how 'weak' the major conferneces are scheduling teams.
I don't agree with that at all. What they are likely doing, is allowing for more competitive games against teams that aren't part of a 'traditional' BCS conferneces. That explains the disparity between BCS games as applied to the 'lesser' conferences, and the 'major' ones. It's not that the major conferences are being 'soft'. They likely aren't. They are, however 'padding' their schedules, at home, I don't particular like that aspect, but by-and-large, all conferences are scheduling competitive games, no exceptions.

This would appear, on the surface, anyway, to address Spence's argument that a team should schedule competitive OOC games. My interpretation is that they are! You just aren't recognizing it, because you aren't factoring in that the major confernces schedules are already 'competitive' by their nature (being major conferences). So, if they are playing ranked OOC opponents, that's additional games 'non-conference' they are playing. They shouldn't be playing harder competition than say the Sun Belt, OOC. Every Sun Belt conference game is against a 'non-BCS' opponent, same for C-USA, MWC, WAC, and MAC. In other words, all conferences are scheduling competitive games.
If it weren't that way, then there would be a conference that 'stood-out' as being a patsy, and I don't see one, myself, unless it's the MWC, but they make up a lot of ground in the winning % department. Apples and oranges, I guess, but I think it's a reflection of how competitive they are.
Last edited by colorado_loves_football on Tue Apr 11, 2006 4:40 pm, edited 3 times in total.

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Postby Eric » Tue Apr 11, 2006 4:06 pm

19 of 20, yeah it's an exaggeration. Ball State sucked last year because of the suspensions. I don't disagree with you that a team like Northern Iowa could upset a team like Eastern Michigan, Ball State, Kent State, or Buffalo, certainly Buffalo, but I'd take my chances with the MAC team.

But Akron isn't in the league of Rice and San Jose State.
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Postby ktffan » Tue Apr 11, 2006 5:55 pm

Eric wrote:19 of 20, yeah it's an exaggeration. Ball State sucked last year because of the suspensions. I don't disagree with you that a team like Northern Iowa could upset a team like Eastern Michigan, Ball State, Kent State, or Buffalo, certainly Buffalo, but I'd take my chances with the MAC team.

But Akron isn't in the league of Rice and San Jose State.


Are you kidding me? Northern Iowa might upset a team from the MAC? Northern Iowa had beaten the last 3 MAC teams it played by a combined score of 91-70. They are lifetime 4-2 against the MAC, last losing in 1949 to Western Michigan. If you bet that way, you're going to be poor.

More fun facts:

Eastern Michigan is 3-3 against their last 6 I-AA opponents.

Since rejoinging I-A, Buffalo is 0-3 against I-AA opponents.

Kent State is 6-3 against their last 9 I-AA opponents.

Akron is 3-3 against their last 6 I-AA opponents.

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Postby Spence » Tue Apr 11, 2006 6:18 pm

I am not convinced that a good I-A school couldn't beat a bad pro team.


This is the craziest thing I have ever heard. I think that 14 is the most players ever drafted off of one college team. Every NFL team contains at least 40 guys who were drafted into the NFL. They were the best of the best in CFB. The top 5%. Any pro team would kill any college team. It wouldn't be close.
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Postby Eric » Tue Apr 11, 2006 6:24 pm

Fine. But if you take out Buffalo (who is 9-48 since rejoining 1-A when they play like a D2 team), that's still a winning record. The odds would be on my side. Eastern Michigan used to be pitiful, Kent State is pitiful, and Akron used to be bad. The Zips since 1995 have been 3-1 against 1-AA competition. If you're saying the Panthers could beat any old team from the MAC, than that's not a smart statement. I believe Bowling Green is 10-0 since 1995.
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Postby ktffan » Tue Apr 11, 2006 8:38 pm

Eric wrote:Fine. But if you take out Buffalo (who is 9-48 since rejoining 1-A when they play like a D2 team), that's still a winning record. The odds would be on my side. Eastern Michigan used to be pitiful, Kent State is pitiful, and Akron used to be bad. The Zips since 1995 have been 3-1 against 1-AA competition. If you're saying the Panthers could beat any old team from the MAC, than that's not a smart statement. I believe Bowling Green is 10-0 since 1995.


Bowling Green is 5-0 since 1995. Where in the world did you think I said that any I-AA team could compete against any MAC team? This kind of tells me that you haven't tried to see my point of view at all. Like I said, playoff I-AA teams are 8-1 against MAC teams that finished with a .500 or less conference record over the last 10 years. If you think one of the weaker MAC teams would have an even or greater chance against a playoff I-AA team, you're going to lose your money. Playoff teams are 10-11 against the whole conference. Either you seriously underestimate I-AA teams, or you are really overestimating the poor MAC teams.

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Postby ktffan » Tue Apr 11, 2006 8:46 pm

Spence wrote:I know they have taken their lumps in a lot of those games, but they have also won some and played a lot of them tight. There is more of a difference in 1-AA and D-1 then there is between the mid majors and the majors. In my opinion the MAC is making great strides in trying to become competitive with the top level talent in CFB.


I-AA teams beat mid-majors at about an 18% rate, mid-majors beat majors at about a 20% rate, so I suppose you're right, there is a larger gap between I-AA and I-A than there is between mids and majors. Not much, though.

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Postby Spence » Tue Apr 11, 2006 9:27 pm

I-AA teams beat mid-majors at about an 18% rate, mid-majors beat majors at about a 20% rate, so I suppose you're right, there is a larger gap between I-AA and I-A than there is between mids and majors. Not much, though.


I would say that the gaps between 1AA and the mid majors would be higher if they were playing their counterparts. You are right, though, that their isn't much difference between a lower level D-1 team and a upper level 1AA team.

That actually reinforces something I have been saying all along. Their are to many D-1 teams. They need to trim it to about 50.
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Postby ktffan » Tue Apr 11, 2006 9:54 pm

Spence wrote:
I-AA teams beat mid-majors at about an 18% rate, mid-majors beat majors at about a 20% rate, so I suppose you're right, there is a larger gap between I-AA and I-A than there is between mids and majors. Not much, though.


I would say that the gaps between 1AA and the mid majors would be higher if they were playing their counterparts. You are right, though, that their isn't much difference between a lower level D-1 team and a upper level 1AA team.

That actually reinforces something I have been saying all along. Their are to many D-1 teams. They need to trim it to about 50.


Teams that finished at .667 to 1.000 in I-AA conference vs teams that finished the same in mid-major conferences over the last 10 years: (2-20-0)--0.091

Teams that finished at .333 to .666 in I-AA conference vs teams that finished the same in mid-major conferences over the last 10 years: (7-38-0)--0.156

Teams that finished at .000 to .333 in I-AA conference vs teams that finished the same in mid-major conferences over the last 10 years: (3-15-0)--0.167


It would appear you may be right.


For mid-majors vs majors:

.666 to 1.000 - (15-64-0)--0.190

.333 to .666 - (41-174-0)--0.191

.000 to .333 - (10-56-0)--0.152

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Postby Spence » Tue Apr 11, 2006 10:59 pm

I would have thought the difference would be more then that. Nice work on the stats.

Just goes to prove that bad is bad at any level.

The fact that 81% of the time the top level major beats the top level mid major proves that parity at the highest level is exaggerated. Mid majors have made strides since the 85 scholarship limit, but they still haven't risen to the top level of the sport. This is why teams (from mid majors especially) need to play tough OOC schedules. Winning isn't enough.
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Postby ktffan » Wed Apr 12, 2006 10:41 am

Spence wrote:I would have thought the difference would be more then that. Nice work on the stats.

Just goes to prove that bad is bad at any level.

The fact that 81% of the time the top level major beats the top level mid major proves that parity at the highest level is exaggerated. Mid majors have made strides since the 85 scholarship limit, but they still haven't risen to the top level of the sport. This is why teams (from mid majors especially) need to play tough OOC schedules. Winning isn't enough.


Oh, you can find evidence elsewhere as well. Mid-majors who finished at .666 to 1.000 in their conference are just 34-32 against majors that finished .000 to .333 over the last 10 years. That's the best of the mid-majors vs. the worst of the majors. If you eliminate it down to just the conference champs for the mid-majors, you find the conference champs are 21-23 against majors that finished .000 to .333. Mid-majors that went undefeated in their conferences are just 8-5 against the same and are 21-25 against all majors. There's not much parity between majors and mid-majors.

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Postby ktffan » Wed Apr 12, 2006 11:08 am

BTW, there's a rumbling out there that TCU scheduled Cal-Davis. No official word yet.

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Postby Eric » Wed Apr 12, 2006 12:53 pm

I suppose we didn't understand our arguments anyway. I wouldn't be suprised that a top-notch 1-AA team could beat a lowly MAC team. Eastern Michigan just suffered a defeat against Eastern Illinois 2 years ago, so that's kind of obvious. I would still take the bad MAC team, but it would be a draw regardless. I said that I wouldn't be suprsied if Northern Iowa would beat a team like Kent State.
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Scheduling disrupted

Postby billybud » Wed Apr 12, 2006 1:24 pm

Some conference changes have caused schedule disruptions in the ACC...and the need for home games has also impacted.

Big schools want to have games at home...small schools need the revenue and will travel. It is dificult to schedule a one year fill in with a great team...FSU has done that with Bama in 07.

in 07, FSU's OOC schedule includes Alabama, Florida, and Colorado...added to Virginia Tech, Miami, Clemson, Boston College, Maryland, and NC State...a murderous schedule.

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Postby ktffan » Wed Apr 12, 2006 1:40 pm

Eric wrote:I suppose we didn't understand our arguments anyway. I wouldn't be suprised that a top-notch 1-AA team could beat a lowly MAC team. Eastern Michigan just suffered a defeat against Eastern Illinois 2 years ago, so that's kind of obvious. I would still take the bad MAC team, but it would be a draw regardless. I said that I wouldn't be suprsied if Northern Iowa would beat a team like Kent State.


The gist of what I'm saying is that a lot of the lower end mid-majors are actually worse than the better I-AA teams, as it shown by their win/loss record when they play. If you don't think the bottom teams in the MAC have been pretty bad recently, you haven't been paying attentions, while the better teams in the MAC have competed with some BCS teams.


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