Possible Scenarios?

[Eric]

What is your BCS scenario?


Things rarely work out how we want them to. The Michigan/Ohio State matchup this weekend is a rare exception. Now, we've heard again and again how the BCS will have to decide from a plethora of one-loss teams and as I'm sure many of us have thought, that just wasn't going to be the case. Everyone gets caught up in their wishful thoughts on ESPN (especially Chris Fowler) about a BCS-mess. But we all know a great deal of these one-loss teams were bound to stumble and we found that out today.

Now, we've got USC, Florida, Notre Dame, Louisville, West Virginia, Rutgers, Boise State, and Arkansas all waiting around and left standing. And this is how it's going to happen, IMO:

USC gets knocked out with a loss against Cal next week. Notre Dame will move into the #4 slot behind Ohio State (#3 at the time and yes, I'm getting confident in the Big Blue all of a sudden) and Florida (#2 at the time). The Irish go down in the Collisieum and that ends their hopes. As for Louisville and West Virginia, their title hopes are pretty much gone. They aren't going to be showed enough love from the computers to take over teams like Florida, Michigan, Ohio State, USC, etc.

Rutgers is going to fall on the final week of the season to West Virginia. I don't think they can really compete with the Mountaineer speed on offense even though their defense plays really hard. Boise State will also have their BCS hopes alive until that week 13 where they fall to Nevada in Reno. If it were at Boise, the Broncos win without much of an issue. BSU gets left out of the BCS and finishes 11-1.

So now, Arkansas and Florida. How do they fit into this scenario? Here's what I see happening. Arkansas will blow the doors off of Mississippi State setting up a huge game against LSU. Sure Arkansas is really, really good, but so are the Tigers. The Tigers end up having too much talent and win that game taking the Razorbacks out of the title picture. Florida breezes through the rest of their schedule (I thought FSU would challenge, ummm.....probably not after tonight's preformance ). Then, everything looks all great for a Florida/Michigan national championship, right? Wrong! Arkansas wins the SEC championship game and takes away hope from Florida.

And who does this leave us with? Why none other than a rematch of Ohio State/Michigan. Should be a lot of fun



But.....if there's anything I've learned from all my years watching college football, it's impossible to predict this stuff. I find it much easier to lay back, forget about projections and conjectures, relax, and just watch the game and have fun.

[Spence]

They won't let Ohio State - TTUN play back to back. It wouldn't be smart. Besides it would ruin the rivalry game. No way the humans would let it happen and it should not happen. Next weeks game between Ohio State and Michigan isn't about the national championship. It is about the rivalry. At this point I don't care about the NC.

[donovan]

What is your BCS scenario?



Now, we've got USC, Florida, Notre Dame, Louisville, West Virginia, Rutgers, Boise State, and Arkansas all waiting around and left standing. And this is how it's going to happen, IMO:

.

........and add one more team next week to that list you are so willing to patronize.... No wonder you have a plot for a rematch...you will need it.

[Spence]

of course this wishful thinking . .it's also 6 something in the morning, therefore, i could still be dreaming.

I would go with dreaming.

[Eric]

Spence, here is what I don't understand. If Michigan and Ohio State are (and it seems they are) the 2 best teams in the nation, why don't they play again in the championship game? It makes sense to me.

And I'm not so sure I follow your drift, Donavan.

[donovan]

Spence, here is what I don't understand. If Michigan and Ohio State are (and it seems they are) the 2 best teams in the nation, why don't they play again in the championship game? It makes sense to me.

And I'm not so sure I follow your drift, Donavan.

Not following my thoughts does not put you in a very exclusive club, for sure.

I sometimes get testy....I just do not think Ohio and Michigan...probably the two best teams....think that everyone else stands around and waits for the dregs of what is left over. Sometimes I get the impression that is what the "Big Boys" think. Anyway...after some calm reflection....I think the the National Championship will be played between Ohio and Michigan...just not at the Fiesta Bowl...They will get their 14 million anyway........

Waiting for the polls......I think it will be so predictable....Humans will start voting for bowl postions, not the best teams.....computers will obliviously rank some "no counts" too high.

It is raining again and the dams are full. Washington Schools are pathetic.......The spin here is just unbelievable........unlike this site.

Off to higher ground...in life and in person.....(No flood worries for me)

[Eric]

I sort of agree. I can assure you I don't have that mindset. USC is coming along now, Arkansas is scary, heck, Rutgers is scary , Boise State plays better when they play better competition, etc., etc.

You are right about the polls. If the pollsters don't want to see a rematch, they can manipulate the BCS if they want to. I just think that Notre Dame, USC, and Florida (the remaining 1-loss title contenders) will drop one more and even if West Virginia is ranked one spot above Michigan/Ohio State, the computers will disagree.....maybe.

We'll just have to sit back and watch what happens I guess.

[Spence]

Because we don't know if Ohio State and Michigan are truly 1 and 2. We play similar schedules so you don't have a lot to compare. Who is to say that if Rutgers beats Louisville or Arkansas (Florida) wins the SEC, or Southern Cal beats Cal and Notre Dame that they aren't better?

There isn't enough diversity on the schedules between Ohio State and Michigan to prove they should meet again. Not if you have other 1 loss teams out there that have played the same or better schedules. If you are going to rank teams by using polls, you have to have it within the system not to allow repeating games. Did it seem right to you that Oklahoma made it despite losing to K-State in the CCG a few years ago?

This is the CCG in the B-10. The loser shouldn't be rewarded with a trip to Glendale. It would sully the value of "The Game". It wouldn't be fair to teams from other parts of the country that believe that they should get a chance.

The only way I could see the loser going to the national championship is if Ohio State loses. I can tell you right now that if Ohio State lost "The Game" and made it to the NC to face Michigan again that I wouldn't even watch it. If we don't take care of business as it comes, I would rather not go. I am still kind of miffed that the loser of that game gets to go to the Rose Bowl. What kind of "punishment" is that? The Rose is a sacred bowl to the B-10. It is a bowl game that we covet. It being the consolation game is somehow wrong to me.

[Eric]

You have a point, but if Michigan lost by a little tiny bit, IN THE SHOE, you don't think they should get another opportunity to win on a neutral site????

[Spence]

NO
The loser gets no rewards. That is how it should be. If Ohio State loses -DONE. If Michigan loses Done. Everything to the winner, nothing to the loser.

[Eric]

Then why should a team that already lost get an opportunity at any rewards? A loss is a loss.

The loser will get grouped with whatever 1 loss teams there are. I think the Michigan/Ohio State loser might have the strongest case based on how well they have played. If Michigan lost, I would probably take a look at USC or West Virginia first. If Ohio State lost, I would give them the bid automatically.

[Spence]

I heard Mitch Albom say the same thing this morning. That fact that they have played each other already should matter. I don't think either team should be allowed to proceed to the championship game with a loss. Especially not back to back. Those two teams aren't head and shoulders above the rest. Someone else should get a shot.