BCS Projections

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donovan
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Postby donovan » Sun Nov 05, 2006 11:59 am

Eric wrote:If they lose to San Jose State next week, for example purposes only, they might get kicked out of the top 25, but if they creep back in there at 11-1, and an unranked Nebraska team upsets a team like Texas in the Big 12 championship game, it's possible. It doesn't matter what the AP and coaches think, it all comes down to the BCS formula. If Boise is ranked 21st and Nebraska is 24th, wouldn't Boise get a BCS invitation? Correct me if I'm wrong.


I thought the BCS invitations were for the top 12 BCS teams.
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Postby Eric » Sun Nov 05, 2006 12:05 pm

They take conference champions and the new rule this year is if a team from a smaller conference is ranked ahead of a BCS conference champion, they're in.
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Postby Spence » Sun Nov 05, 2006 12:26 pm

They would still have to be ranked in the top 15, I believe. Which it looks like they will be. If a team is ranked in the top 12 it automatic, if they are in the top 15 and ranked ahead of a BCS conference winner then it is automatic also.
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Postby Eric » Sun Nov 05, 2006 12:28 pm

Oh yeah, that's right.

So they can't afford to lose a game. Looks like I have some editing to do.
Running bowl/MSU/OSU record '05-present: 11-32

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Postby mountainman » Sun Nov 05, 2006 12:36 pm

Here you go Donovan ...... what did your think the posts about Boise State fans pulling for Wake Forest this weekend were all about? Make you feel any better this morning ...... :?

3. The champion of Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference, or the Western Athletic Conference will earn an automatic berth in a BCS bowl game if either:


A. Such team is ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS Standings, or,
B. Such team is ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS Standings and its ranking in the final BCS Standings is higher than that of a champion of a conference that has an annual automatic berth in one of the BCS bowls.

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Postby donovan » Sun Nov 05, 2006 4:51 pm

mountainman wrote:Here you go Donovan ...... what did your think the posts about Boise State fans pulling for Wake Forest this weekend were all about? Make you feel any better this morning ...... :?

3. The champion of Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference, or the Western Athletic Conference will earn an automatic berth in a BCS bowl game if either:


A. Such team is ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS Standings, or,
B. Such team is ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS Standings and its ranking in the final BCS Standings is higher than that of a champion of a conference that has an annual automatic berth in one of the BCS bowls.


I think you have the procedure right.....as for the Wake Forest Thing....I am sure it does some...not me....I am old and decrepit...I think Boise has a legitimate team this year...Think Johnson is a legitimate running back and think that they play good football, always issues. I think the ...as ad naseum it is discussed here....it is hard for the status quo of Big Schools should always be there and no one should disrupt the birthright ....I like the Congrove Poll.....I always like people that agree with me.....My 11th wife was just telling me....I digress...
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Postby Spence » Sun Nov 05, 2006 5:08 pm

:lol: :lol:

I don't think most think that Boise State isn't a legitimate team. Most that argue Boise State's right to a BCS game do it on the basis of not playing a good enough schedule. Like it or not, Oregon State beating USC made Boise State and their schedule legit. They have an argument to be included in the BCS, based on the new rules and that win.

I think personally that Boise State is a top 25 team. I don't know exactly where I would put them if I were ranking purely on the strength of the teams, but I believe that they are in there somewhere. They have likely proved they deserve a chance to prove how good they are on a national stage. How they match up with some of the "birthright" teams.

I don't look at it that way, though. Teams are ranked preseason, based on past performance or "birthright" as some believe. There is a genuine bias based on that fact, that no body can (should) deny. But as the year goes along the teams that have proven them selves to be good, move up into the rankings and the teams that were unfairly ranked fall.

This is a stange year in CFB, because there really isn't any "great" teams. Teams that at least appear to be unbeatable. There are lots of good teams, but non really appear head and shoulders above the rest. Not even close. Is Boise State and good as #5 in the polls, or #8. None of us really know and really can't make an educated judgement on that based on play so far in CFB. So if the meet the criteria, they should go without controversy. They will have earned it.
"History doesn't always repeat itself but it often rhymes." - Mark Twain

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Postby mountainman » Sun Nov 05, 2006 6:45 pm

donovan wrote:....I am old and decrepit....My 11th wife was just telling me....I digress...


Could it be that those two statements are somehow interconnected? :lol: :D :lol:

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Postby colorado_loves_football » Mon Nov 06, 2006 1:59 pm

Spence wrote::lol: :lol:

I don't think most think that Boise State isn't a legitimate team. Most that argue Boise State's right to a BCS game do it on the basis of not playing a good enough schedule. Like it or not, Oregon State beating USC made Boise State and their schedule legit. They have an argument to be included in the BCS, based on the new rules and that win.

Nobody (at least that I can think of) is necessarily saying Boise St doesn't 'deserve' the opportunity, provided they finish strong. Boise St still has some pretty 'challenging' games left. San Jose St, has lost all of two games, to pretty good teams (Washington, Nevada). Nevada, hasn't looked bad, either, but started off fairly 'slow', to begin the year.
But, they've only been beaten 3 times (Fresno St, Arizona St, Hawaii).
Boise St, if 'undefeated' should be represented in the BCS, somewhere.
If they aren't, I think it's a travesty, personally, and they might not be.

Spence wrote:I think personally that Boise State is a top 25 team. I don't know exactly where I would put them if I were ranking purely on the strength of the teams, but I believe that they are in there somewhere. They have likely proved they deserve a chance to prove how good they are on a national stage. How they match up with some of the "birthright" teams.
Clearly, they are a top-25 team. I don't think that's even arguable. Hawaii is nearly 'top-25' material. Oregon St, probably should be, but aren't, as of yet. You 'argued' earlier, they hadn't beaten any 'ranked' teams, but you spoke prematurely, in my opinion. How good is the #1 Q.

Spence wrote:I don't look at it that way, though. Teams are ranked preseason, based on past performance or "birthright" as some believe. There is a genuine bias based on that fact, that no body can (should) deny. But as the year goes along the teams that have proven them selves to be good, move up into the rankings and the teams that were unfairly ranked fall.
Ranking is necessarily subjective. Pre-season rankings, can be applied, either way. Remember the 1984 BYU 'debate'? One point of contention was how good Pittsburgh was, that season. Well, they were #3 when BYU played them, and that likely gave them the 'momentum' they needed to make a 'charge' for the NC. Pittsburgh and Michigan were the two 'powerhouses' BYU beat, that year.

Spence wrote:This is a stange year in CFB, because there really isn't any "great" teams. Teams that at least appear to be unbeatable. There are lots of good teams, but non really appear head and shoulders above the rest. Not even close. Is Boise State and good as #5 in the polls, or #8. None of us really know and really can't make an educated judgement on that based on play so far in CFB. So if the meet the criteria, they should go without controversy. They will have earned it.
Not sure what you mean, by that. How do you define 'greatness'? Winning every game is one way to measure it. But, assuredly not the only way. Certainly (B.S.)

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Postby Yeofoot » Mon Nov 06, 2006 3:52 pm

The problem with a team like Boise State in a BCS bowl is this:

If they make it to a BCS bowl game, they have nothing to lose, they'll be partying like they just won a Super Bowl for just getting there. But if the projections are correct and they end up playing Texas in the Fiesta Bowl, it's a lose-lose situation for Texas. If they lose, they get beaten on National Television by a team that most have never even heard of. And no matter what the score, it will be an emberassing blemish in the record books for Texas.

If Texas wins, it'll be a waste of a BCS bid. Who will care, and who will be talking about it? But like the Alamo Bowl last year, you got two mediocre squads that was an instant classic, Michigan vs Nebraska.

If Texas plays Boise St, they can onlyl break even in that game by blowing them out. It would diminish Texas' entire season.

They would be the least talked about BCS game on ESPN, the least written about BCS game in Sports Illustrated, the least talked about BCS game on talk radio. Texas would make less money on there merchandising for the games. Why would it be a big deal to have a Fiesta Bowl T-Shirt with the Texas-Boise State game on it?

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Postby donovan » Mon Nov 06, 2006 5:03 pm

Yeofoot wrote:The problem with a team like Boise State in a BCS bowl is this:

If they make it to a BCS bowl game, they have nothing to lose, they'll be partying like they just won a Super Bowl for just getting there. But if the projections are correct and they end up playing Texas in the Fiesta Bowl, it's a lose-lose situation for Texas. If they lose, they get beaten on National Television by a team that most have never even heard of. And no matter what the score, it will be an emberassing blemish in the record books for Texas.

If Texas wins, it'll be a waste of a BCS bid. Who will care, and who will be talking about it? But like the Alamo Bowl last year, you got two mediocre squads that was an instant classic, Michigan vs Nebraska.

If Texas plays Boise St, they can onlyl break even in that game by blowing them out. It would diminish Texas' entire season.

They would be the least talked about BCS game on ESPN, the least written about BCS game in Sports Illustrated, the least talked about BCS game on talk radio. Texas would make less money on there merchandising for the games. Why would it be a big deal to have a Fiesta Bowl T-Shirt with the Texas-Boise State game on it?

...and absolutely this is what it is all about...what is best for Texas.....if they want to play with the big boys...then win the games.....and do not be so self righteous to think that Bosie will cheer just because they got there........they have more dignity than you would understand....

Remember the Alamo........
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Postby billybud » Mon Nov 06, 2006 5:14 pm

Well...Boise did lose with dignity to Boston College last year...although it must be tough to be dignified while playing on smurf turf. I though BC was a dignified winner. BC deserved better than the frozen wasteland of Idaho in winter.

Boise has yet to beat a team from a BCS conference in a bowl...will this be the year?
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Postby donovan » Mon Nov 06, 2006 5:49 pm

billybud wrote:Well...Boise did lose with dignity to Boston College last year...although it must be tough to be dignified while playing on smurf turf. I though BC was a dignified winner. BC deserved better than the frozen wasteland of Idaho in winter.

Boise has yet to beat a team from a BCS conference in a bowl...will this be the year?


Yes, it will be.

Deserved better???? They could have opted to refuse the invitation. Nothing says schools have to accept bowl bids.

As for the smurf turf...you have to love it. Better in person....Hallowed ground.....Wasteland of Idaho in the winter....I think most Idahoans are perfectly comfortable with Easterners staying East...
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Postby Yeofoot » Mon Nov 06, 2006 6:40 pm

...and absolutely this is what it is all about...what is best for Texas.....if they want to play with the big boys...then win the games.....and do not be so self righteous to think that Bosie will cheer just because they got there........they have more dignity than you would understand....

Remember the Alamo........


I have no personal beef with Boise St, one of my coaches played for them, but face it, they're getting to play in a big bowl because of a loophole in the system.

It's college football affirmative action.

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Postby Spence » Mon Nov 06, 2006 6:49 pm

I say let it happen. Let the top ranked mid major play in a BCS bowl every year for at least the next five. That way at the end everyone will know for sure who is right in the argument. If the mid majors do well then people should change their attitudes toward them and their quest for a NC. If they don't do well, then let the system take that into account as well, without having congress stick their nose in it.
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