Northern Illinois and Fresno State

[donovan]

The solution is to break up the 125 into like groups based on something, and then it becomes like conference play. You win, you win. But that is not where the money is, so follow the money. Travel agents will love the NC this year.

[billybud]

Excuse the sarcasm Mr. Duke...but you stepped into on onging argument of 7 years running...I tend to rank on straight power...

There's no need to be sarcastic or to avoid the obvious conclusion. All I ask is this: If Fresno played FSU tomorrow, and Fresno actually won on a last second hail mary, would you attribute a higher power ranking to Fresno than to FSU in the billybud's power ranking the next day?

If that question were put to me, here's how I would answer: No, FSU is still the stronger team--in fact, that revered eye test tells me they are likely the best team in the country. They had a let down, which can happen to the best of teams. That said, I'm curious about your answer.

If Fresno beat FSU and a couple of other strong teams to prove it was not a fluke game..then they proved they were better. Beating one strong team still leaves the WTF factor...

Sure 11 win Virginia Tech lost to James Madison in 2010.... The same James Madison that lost to Delaware, New Hampshire, Villanova, Massachusetts, and Richmond.

Your comment..."There's no need to be sarcastic or to avoid the obvious conclusion."

I am sarcastic when making MY point...not to avoid what someone may think is an "obvious conclusion". If you don't like my style...scroll on by.

Fresno State has beaten their schedule...but their toughest test has been a one point win over Boise...BYU and Washington both looked far better against Boise. The question about Fresno, to me, is "What have they done?"

My answer would be..."Won all of their games, but played a fairly weak schedule so far".

I give them credit for winning but temper that by noting that they won against a so-so slate.

[Duke1632]

I am sarcastic when making MY point...not to avoid what someone may think is an "obvious conclusion". If you don't like my style...scroll on by.

I'm not interested in your "style" when making YOUR point. But I do observe that there's no need for certain derisive elements and you can do with that whatever you wish. It's nothing to me.

Of course, if you answer the question, which thus far you have not in an unqualified manner, then the conclusion does become rather obvious. If you want to pretend that's not the case or to set up arguments or strawmen, then perhaps you should take your own advice and scroll on by.

After all, this debate is rather new to me, but you are the one bemoaning the plight of confronting this debate for nigh on a decade. Probably, one of us (YOU) should have known better than to get involved from the beginning, or at least appreciated the consequences and futility if you did. I am learning that myself after only a few days.

[Cane from the Bend]

Of course, if you answer the question, which thus far you have not in an unqualified manner, then the conclusion does become rather obvious. If you want to pretend that's not the case or to set up arguments or strawmen, then perhaps you should take your own advice and scroll on by.

Well . . . he kind of did:

If Fresno beat FSU and a couple of other strong teams to prove it was not a fluke game..then they proved they were better. Beating one strong team still leaves the WTF factor...

Just the same . . . maybe the wrong question is being asked; or, at least, being asked backwards, by-and-to the wrong person:

All I ask is this: If Fresno played FSU tomorrow, and Fresno actually won on a last second hail mary, would you attribute a higher power ranking to Fresno than to FSU in the billybud's power ranking the next day?

Maybe the question should be posed to Duke1632; and that question should be:

If Fresno were to lose to 3 of what are considered the best teams in college football in the same year, by rather close scores; say losses to --- Oregon by 3 - Florida St by 6 - Alabama by 7 --- would you look at Fresno State the same, as if they were to finish this season undefeated, with their current schedule?

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[billybud]

I wonder if Duke is the reincarnation of old Winterkillsthings, the Colorado kid?

[Cane from the Bend]

I'd wondered that myself . . .

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[Duke1632]

If Fresno were to lose to 3 of what are considered the best teams in college football in the same year, by rather close scores; say losses to --- Oregon by 3 - Florida St by 6 - Alabama by 7 --- would you look at Fresno State the same, as if they were to finish this season undefeated, with their current schedule?

No, I would not look at Fresno State the same way under the scenario you described vs. if they go undefeated this season. (and for the record, that's what answering a question looks like. It does not involve first changing the question and answering that).

But in an effort to mitigate unnecessary angst, I submit that I clearly see the merits of billybud's arguments. But on the other hand, there are also very severe limitations associated with those arguments, which the two of you appear not only unwilling to acknowledge, but to possibly take offense when someone else does. The big fish in a small pond analogy can only take one so far because that big fish might actually be a shark. Power rankings just don't know. So to focus on the size of the pond in that case or the size of the other fish in that pond is not helpful, in fact counterproductive to a question of how large is the big fish.

Furthermore, if you are true to your own methodology, then power rankings must, quite often, rank a top team that loses above a lesser team that just upset them. Since NC is decided by rankings, there is a decided conflict of interest here. Specifically, a very highly ranked team that loses the NCG might still be ranked #1 afterwards (assuming one is true to the claimed methodology). And if that methodology is abandoned for the NCG (at least in some cases) then how is it valid for regular season games, because even without such an event the methodology is horribly susceptible to the same vagaries all season long.

I think both sides have valid arguments and obvious shortcomings. I disagree with billybud's (and possible Cane's) position not because I think those arguments are weaker, but rather because I think following his position leads to more damaging consequences. I would happily trade having an occasional bowl blowout for the opportunity to have a pleasantly surprising ending--an ending that, over time, leads to more fans for smaller schools, and more excitement, and some time down the road, better recruiting and winning coaches staying put. In that case, over time, the 125 team pool might not be so stratified as it is today. Of course, Donovan's solution appears to be the easiest to implement and would render the question moot.

[Spence]

I can't say I'm a fan of the way the polls have worked or the reworked version of the BCS, but you should have to play a certain tough enough teams for people to be able to grasp the strength of your team. That is why Ohio State flounders in the polls. The Buckeye's started number 2, but no one can get a handle on whether or not they can play with Bama or FSU, so they have next to no chance at the NCG. The conference they play in is most of the problem. It can be tough to schedule a good OOC schedule because you don't know how good teams will be down the road. You do count on certain teams in your conference to be strong enough to make it easier to see.

I look at both Florida State and Ohio State. Both teams play relatively soft schedules. But when you watch Florida State. they handle their games. They don't get pushed around on defense. They have a good offense. They can put pressure on a team from both sides of the ball. Ohio State on the other hand has shown weakness in the secondary and weakness on the Dline at times - although it's been better lately. It is easy to say Florida State is a better team from what we have seen so far this year. Maybe Florida State isn't as good as they look, but all the evidence points to them being very good. Ohio State is lots like Oregon. If teams can put pressure on our defense it puts lots of pressure on the offense and changes the game plan for Ohio State. Sometimes you have to watch teams and go with your gut. That will be Fresno State's problem. Baylor on the other hand, may have something. Weak schedule so far, but it they keep winning, they deserve consideration. But not quite yet.

[Eric]

Something that came up that references the title, I don't get why people in the national media keep saying we need to keep an eye on how UCF finishes and whether or not they get ahead of Fresno or NIU, as if the only way they get in is being rated in the top 16 and being ahead of a BCS champ. I don't think that will even matter as they only have to get to #12. Fresno is 14th and NIU is 15th; it might look hard for them to jump the teams ahead of them right now, but the teams right ahead of them in the rankings will lose and drop a few spots over the course of the next four weeks. If either Fresno or NIU (or both) go undefeated, they will undoubtedly finish in the top 12 and the AAC champion's finishing won't matter. Four weeks is a long time and a lot of teams lose with three plus games remaining.

[Spence]

Something that came up that references the title, I don't get why people in the national media keep saying we need to keep an eye on how UCF finishes and whether or not they get ahead of Fresno or NIU, as if the only way they get in is being rated in the top 16 and being ahead of a BCS champ. I don't think that will even matter as they only have to get to #12. Fresno is 14th and NIU is 15th; it might look hard for them to jump the teams ahead of them right now, but the teams right ahead of them in the rankings will lose and drop a few spots over the course of the next four weeks. If either Fresno or NIU (or both) go undefeated, they will undoubtedly finish in the top 12 and the AAC champion's finishing won't matter. Four weeks is a long time and a lot of teams lose with three plus games remaining.

Unless the voters manipulate the polls. It wouldn't be the first time and if the coaches from the major conferences start to see them losing that extra BCS check a couple of those teams could fall.