BCS Projections

Say it all here
Forum rules
NOTICE: Please be sure to check the CFP Message Board Rules and Regulations and the Read Me page before posting.
colorado_loves_football

Postby colorado_loves_football » Mon Nov 06, 2006 7:05 pm

Eric wrote:Yeah, I didn't overlook Boise State, I just feel they will be 11-1 when the season ends. Nevada will have nothing to lose and will play spoiler in Boise's last game of the year.

I don't think that will happen, myself. Boise St, would be 'crazy' to overlook Nevada that late in the year. And, I think Boise St has a much better team, than Nevada does, evidenced in part, by how BSU played against Fresno St (an admittedly much weaker team, late in the year).

Donovan wrote:If Boise State loses one game....they will be gone in a heartbeat. No one will give them any consideration whatsoever. All they are to most of those in power is an irritation they hope goes away. But after yesterday's games, I think they could play with the best of them.

I 'echo' that sentiment. They won't be 'in the hunt' if they should happen to lose a game, late in the year. They would likely be playing (at home) in the MPC Computers Bowl for the second consecutive year.

Eric wrote:If they lose to San Jose State next week, for example purposes only, they might get kicked out of the top 25, but if they creep back in there at 11-1, and an unranked Nebraska team upsets a team like Texas in the Big 12 championship game, it's possible. It doesn't matter what the AP and coaches think, it all comes down to the BCS formula. If Boise is ranked 21st and Nebraska is 24th, wouldn't Boise get a BCS invitation? Correct me if I'm wrong.
They would drop behing Brigham Young, who is 'cruising' at the moment, (and would receive any 'at large' BCS bid, as a result. One loss, drops Boise St out of the BCS consideration.

Yeofoot wrote:The problem with a team like Boise State in a BCS bowl is this:

If they make it to a BCS bowl game, they have nothing to lose, they'll be partying like they just won a Super Bowl for just getting there. But if the projections are correct and they end up playing Texas in the Fiesta Bowl, it's a lose-lose situation for Texas. If they lose, they get beaten on National Television by a team that most have never even heard of. And no matter what the score, it will be an emberassing blemish in the record books for Texas.
For one thing, Texas is ranked fairly high, in the most recent BCS poll (#5 overall). A loss by Florida, combined with an 'upset' of Louisville could send Texas into the BCS title game.
As the saying goes: Don't count your chickens, until they've hatched.
Rutgers could conceivable beat Louisville. Would the BCS prefer an undefeated Rutgers over a once-beaten Texas team? It's a wash.

Yeofoot wrote:If Texas wins, it'll be a waste of a BCS bid. Who will care, and who will be talking about it? But like the Alamo Bowl last year, you got two mediocre squads that was an instant classic, Michigan vs Nebraska.
Not a bad analogy, actually. I'd like to see Boise St and Rutgers in the Fiesta Bowl, personally. Neither are serious NC teams.

Yeofoot wrote:If Texas plays Boise St, they can onlyl break even in that game by blowing them out. It would diminish Texas' entire season.
I don't think so. And, as I've already stated, I'm not convinced that's what happens, anyway. If Texas wins out, they will be a 'contender' for the NC. Mark my words. Louisville isn't so good they can't be 'upset'. Rutgers is gunning for them. Rutgers & W.V. play late.

Yeofoot wrote:They would be the least talked about BCS game on ESPN, the least written about BCS game in Sports Illustrated, the least talked about BCS game on talk radio. Texas would make less money on there merchandising for the games. Why would it be a big deal to have a Fiesta Bowl T-Shirt with the Texas-Boise State game on it?

Again, I think you are being too 'presumptuous'. I think IF Boise St is selected (they still have a ways to go before they are), they are likely paired against a 'comparable' team. You are correct, however Texas (if not selected to the NC) would be the Fiesta's Bowl's 'host'. Boise St. would likely be selected, but that's still only one possibility. Supppose Missouri makes the Big XII title game. It's in K.C., MO. Seems to me, that might 'motivate' them, similar to how K-State beat Oklahoma, 2003.

BillyBud wrote:Well...Boise did lose with dignity to Boston College last year...although it must be tough to be dignified while playing on smurf turf. I though BC was a dignified winner. BC deserved better than the frozen wasteland of Idaho in winter.

Boise has yet to beat a team from a BCS conference in a bowl...will this be the year?
Had you not 'qulalified' your statement (in a bowl) I would have corrected you, as it is, you are correct, but they did beat Texas Christian, 2003 (a team, that but for a loss to S. Mississippi, was a BCS representative). And, they did it on their own 'turf'. I'ts all relative.

billybud
Athletic Director
Athletic Director
Posts: 10728
Joined: Wed Apr 12, 2006 12:25 pm

Postby billybud » Mon Nov 06, 2006 7:16 pm

yes...Boise has beaten 4 of the 16 BCS teams it has played since becoming IA, for a winning perventage 0f .250.
“If short hair and good manners won football games, Army and Navy would play for the national championship every year.”

colorado_loves_football

Postby colorado_loves_football » Mon Nov 06, 2006 7:28 pm

billybud wrote:yes...Boise has beaten 4 of the 16 BCS teams it has played since becoming IA, for a winning perventage 0f .250.
Which is identical to TCU's overall winning percentage against Ohio St.
Two of TCU's 'wins' were against NC teams (or nearly). I think that says something, and it's often in the 'details' that we learn the most about a team. I'm not that 'high' on Boise St, personally. You aren't giving BCS the same consideration as you are Florida St, which is fine, to a point. But, the simple fact is, Boise St is 'eligible' for a BCS bid, this year.

billybud
Athletic Director
Athletic Director
Posts: 10728
Joined: Wed Apr 12, 2006 12:25 pm

Postby billybud » Mon Nov 06, 2006 11:40 pm

TCU has only won one game against Ohio State (in 1957) out of six ...for a .167 winning percentage.
“If short hair and good manners won football games, Army and Navy would play for the national championship every year.”

User avatar
Spence
Administrator
Administrator
Posts: 20993
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2005 11:52 pm
Location: Chillicothe, Ohio (Ohio's First Capital)
Contact:

Postby Spence » Tue Nov 07, 2006 12:13 am

I think it was one out of four, but I could be wrong. I looked this up one time.
"History doesn't always repeat itself but it often rhymes." - Mark Twain

User avatar
donovan
Athletic Director
Athletic Director
Posts: 8634
Joined: Wed Oct 04, 2006 6:41 am
Location: Pacific Northwest

Postby donovan » Tue Nov 07, 2006 8:07 am

Seems to me that conversations can become ludicrous. Bowls games historically have been the team that was best that season went to the bowl they knew that would go to...conference selections....

Then we decided we needed to know who was the one and only National Champion...so we come up with this system....(very flawed, in my opinion...but it is what we have.)

Now we want to protect the Biggies with discussion..and unfortunately voting....based on records of years gone by. Who cares...this year should be this year...does not matter what happened in the past.

Use whatever criteria you want for this year...SOS WL Nice color uniforms, Conference....but it needs to be for this years performance.

It is certainly all right to take into consideration teams with weaker schedules....but this years.....

I agree with Spence in the area that rematches are not right. You had your chance...live with it.

So what about mid majors.....judge them with the same measure as the rest of the field for that year.

What has happened is we continue to make excuses for teams with loses.

I have many times said and still will..if Boise loses one game...they will be a blip on the screen. They will go to some insignificant bowl shown on the who cares network. taped delayed....in black and white.....

If they go undefeated should they play for the NC....no..based on all the criteria established......BUT if an undefeated team does not play in a significant bowl, where there can be legitimate discussion...you no more have resolved the NC than before...in fact..it is worse.

If you do not want mid majors to compete for you elitist system...then have some guts and kick them out of the 119 and only the select 8 that get consideration......

Oh yeah...when you do that.....where will you get all the big bucks that you clamor for....hmmm....lets have a horse race but only certain horses can win....but take the money bet on them....

My guess is....some hope...Ohio and Boise State will be the only two unbeaten teams in the end........

Ohio State and Boise will be the only two teams that will know Ohio is better...the rest will just continue to regergitate why with a loss or two, they should be give accolades of men. going back to bed. :roll:
Statistics are the Morphine of College Football

User avatar
Spence
Administrator
Administrator
Posts: 20993
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2005 11:52 pm
Location: Chillicothe, Ohio (Ohio's First Capital)
Contact:

Postby Spence » Tue Nov 07, 2006 8:36 am

It was a very good late night rant though. :lol:
"History doesn't always repeat itself but it often rhymes." - Mark Twain

billybud
Athletic Director
Athletic Director
Posts: 10728
Joined: Wed Apr 12, 2006 12:25 pm

Postby billybud » Tue Nov 07, 2006 9:14 am

Donovan...I agree that it is this year and this year only that counts...

But...my beef is that wins and losses have come to mean more than anything else...without much consideration of the difficulty of the wins. If you play a bunch of teams that aren't as good, it is much easier to put up flashy win/loss numbers than if you play four or five top 30 teams.

Playing and beating top 30 teams is pretty difficult as the record attests. ..so far, the conferences' record this year for playing top 30 teams is...

ACC.........11- 17

BE............2-10

B-10.........6-21

B-12.........3-17

CUSA........0-12

MAC.........0-11

MWC........0-10

Pac 10......16-16

SEC..........8-19

Sunbelt.....0-11

WAC.........1-14

Boise is undefeated ...playing an SOS ranked #102.....and has played one game against a top 30 team. Rutgers has played zero top 30 teams and has an SOS ranked #101.

Cal has lost a game, but has played four top 30 teams and has an SOS ranked #3...Auburn has lost one game while playing four Top 30 teams....Cal and Auburn, in my eyes, are more deserving at this point than Boise.
“If short hair and good manners won football games, Army and Navy would play for the national championship every year.”

User avatar
donovan
Athletic Director
Athletic Director
Posts: 8634
Joined: Wed Oct 04, 2006 6:41 am
Location: Pacific Northwest

Postby donovan » Tue Nov 07, 2006 9:45 am

DENVER (AP) -ESPN has canceled plans to televise Saturday's Boise State-San Jose State football game, the Western Athletic Conference said Monday.

"We are very disappointed that ESPN has made this decision,'' WAC Commissioner Karl Benson said. "It is very unfair to both San Jose State and Boise State.''

The game was originally set to be broadcast on ESPN2 at 10 p.m. ET. It will now be played at noon as originally planned.

Benson said the conference had been talking to ESPN about moving the Nov. 25 Boise State-Nevada game to Nov. 24, but those talks failed.

"We are not on the same page regarding future scheduling,'' ESPN spokesman Josh Krulewitz said.


Well what more can be said........ :D It is flooding here in Washington and my boat leaks.....at my age..everything leaks.....
Statistics are the Morphine of College Football

billybud
Athletic Director
Athletic Director
Posts: 10728
Joined: Wed Apr 12, 2006 12:25 pm

Postby billybud » Tue Nov 07, 2006 11:26 am

1...make sure your bilge pump works...

2...the one on the boat, too.

3...have a good set of earphones and a portable radio...let's you go to the bathroom and continue listening to the game. I even watch televised games with wireless headphones on...I don't skip a beat if I run to the kitchen, bathroom, etc.
“If short hair and good manners won football games, Army and Navy would play for the national championship every year.”

colorado_loves_football

Postby colorado_loves_football » Tue Nov 07, 2006 2:03 pm

billybud wrote:TCU has only won one game against Ohio State (in 1957) out of six ...for a .167 winning percentage.
We've been all around this, before, but so we 'understand' each other:
TCU's all-time W/L against Ohio St is as follows:
1 win, 4 losses, 1 tie, which 'translates' into a .250 winning % (1/4).
The 'tie' came in a year, where Ohio St nearly went undefeated. It should be measured 'proportionately' to the circumstances, IMO. The previous year, Ohio St. won the national championship, lost to TCU.
Bottom line: wins can be 'gauged', and losses (and ties) are 'relative'.

billybud
Athletic Director
Athletic Director
Posts: 10728
Joined: Wed Apr 12, 2006 12:25 pm

Postby billybud » Tue Nov 07, 2006 2:46 pm

We've been all around this, before, but so we 'understand' each other:
TCU's all-time W/L against Ohio St is as follows:
1 win, 4 losses, 1 tie, which 'translates' into a .250 winning % (1/4


Just so we understand each other....


Yes, we have been around this before...CLF can't figure the record of his own team....You are again wrong.

TCU...SIX games with Ohio State...1 win...equals .167 winning percentage


Count 'em..SIX GAMES...SIX, not five...SIX, SIX, SIX

Date.............Opponent Result

9/29/1973 @ Ohio State L 3 37
9/27/1969 @ Ohio State L 0 62
9/24/1966 @ Ohio State L 7 14
9/30/1961 @ Ohio State T 7 7
9/28/1957 @ Ohio State W 18 14
9/25/1937 @ Ohio State L 0 14
“If short hair and good manners won football games, Army and Navy would play for the national championship every year.”

billybud
Athletic Director
Athletic Director
Posts: 10728
Joined: Wed Apr 12, 2006 12:25 pm

Postby billybud » Tue Nov 07, 2006 3:01 pm

Math 101 for CLF...

1 win of six equals a .166666 Winning percentage

The Losing percentage is 4 of 6 or .66666

The Tie percentage is 1 of 6 or .16666

.1666
.6666
.1666
----------
.9998...(rounding losses)

When you win one of six games played, you have not one 25% of the games.
“If short hair and good manners won football games, Army and Navy would play for the national championship every year.”

User avatar
donovan
Athletic Director
Athletic Director
Posts: 8634
Joined: Wed Oct 04, 2006 6:41 am
Location: Pacific Northwest

Postby donovan » Tue Nov 07, 2006 5:45 pm

Are you sure all of you guys do not work in the statistics department of some political party........
Statistics are the Morphine of College Football

User avatar
Spence
Administrator
Administrator
Posts: 20993
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2005 11:52 pm
Location: Chillicothe, Ohio (Ohio's First Capital)
Contact:

Postby Spence » Tue Nov 07, 2006 7:30 pm

You found a couple one that I missed. I knew about the loss, three wins, and the tie. Now I have to go back and find which one I missed. :roll:
"History doesn't always repeat itself but it often rhymes." - Mark Twain


Return to “General Discussion”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 102 guests