CFP Pick'em - Week 8

[donovan]

Week 8

1 Texas Tech
2 Oklahoma State
3 Memphis
4 Toledo
5 Florida
6 Georgia Tech
7 Akron
8 Temple
9 Wyoming
10 South Alabama
11 Stanford
12 Texas A&M
13 BYU
14 Virginia
15 North Texas
16 Washington
17 LSU
18 USC
19 Florida State
20 Arizona

[Spence]

1. Texas Tech
2. Oklahoma State
3. Memphis
4. Toledo
5. Missouri
6. Georgia Tech
7. Miami OH
8. Temple
9. Wyoming
10. Kent State
11. Stanford
12. Texas A&M
13. BYU
14. Duke
15. North Texas
16. Washington
17. LSU
18. Notre Dame
19. Florida State
20. Arizona

[Duke1632]

Welcome, Duke! I hope you stick around for the pick'em. Since we have two new players and one guy who has already missed a week, I was planning on resetting the scoreboard after this week and doing a "second-half" champion kind of thing in addition to the overall champion. It helps give us all a little something to play for.

I'll definitely stick around. Out of curiosity, what criterion do you use to select the 20 games? I tend to watch many games on Saturday, and have really enjoyed some games this year between non-AQ teams, but I must confess, there are so many teams I haven't watched at all, and for many games I'm just flipping a coin, so to speak. It's sorta fun, though.

[Eric]

I try to do a split between games that I think will be competitive and games that have national appeal. My goal is to get good splits between the pickers so it actually makes it interesting. If everybody goes one way, it's not a lot of fun. But at the same time, I'm not going to ignore the biggest games of the week. Last week nobody happened to take Missouri or Texas, but I couldn't leave those games off. I use the ESPN weekly schedule, copy and paste all of the ones that I think look like games that might get a good split, and then I try to whittle it down to 20. Last week I was forced to cut games like UL-Monroe and Texas State, Rice and UTSA, and FIU and UAB. If it comes down to a big game or a competitive game between two mediocre teams, I usually side with the big games.

I did some stat keeping a couple years ago out of curiosity and I found that the larger conferences tend to be more represented because I want to have everybody pick teams that they watch week-in and week-out or teams that they are more familiar with. Even so, I include every team at least once in a year (including ones that are transitioning, so that includes Old Dominion). I keep a running list of teams I haven't used yet and it's down to 10 left. Baylor and Louisville haven't made an appearance yet since they've been so heavily favored every game this year. Louisville has some of their bigger games on weekdays, so that hasn't helped.

Oh, right, that's my other rule: No weekday games. People have missed Thursday or Friday nighters in the past, so I want everybody to have ample time to get their picks in. And on the last week of the year, I use playoff games from the FCS to round it up to 20 since there's usually a slight shortage. I think one year I had to use a DII playoff game. I don't know why, I just like keeping it at 20!

So I guess to sum up, it's kind of subjective . I go based on my gut feeling without using spreads. I usually get the next week's games posted late Saturday night after all the action is finished.

[donovan]

And you do a heck of a job...

[Duke1632]

And you do a heck of a job...

I have to agree. I did the same exercise described "cut/past from ESPN schedule" and the 20 choices you made now (in hindsight) seem to be the only 20 possible to choose from. Your legwork is great fun for me, and the logic of your selection process makes a lot of sense. Is there a perennial winner or small group that tend excel? If so, it would be nice to hear the methodology from those folks (e.g., are the picks all gut, or based on lines, etc.)? Just curious...

[Eric]

And you do a heck of a job...

I have to agree. I did the same exercise described "cut/past from ESPN schedule" and the 20 choices you made now (in hindsight) seem to be the only 20 possible to choose from. Your legwork is great fun for me, and the logic of your selection process makes a lot of sense. Is there a perennial winner or small group that tend excel? If so, it would be nice to hear the methodology from those folks (e.g., are the picks all gut, or based on lines, etc.)? Just curious...

I can't speak to everyone's methodologies, but I usually go by my gut. I used to be a bit of a casual fan, but something clicked in 2003 where I've become obsessed with college football. Over the years I've gotten a better feel for those kind of matchups where you can say to yourself, "oh, I've seen this script before." Such as: "this team has a better defense," "this team is struggling right now," "homefield advantage," "pass offense vs. leaky secondary," etc. But that's usually gotten me to the middle of the pack . In the past I've been somewhat upset-happy, but I've toned it down the last couple of years.

I think my best finish ever is third place for a total season. I did win a second-half contest once, can't remember the year. I don't know how the rest of the board let that happen

[donovan]

I have changed my method over the years. This is my current formula.



Or maybe it is asking my granddaughter who likes the teams with the best mascots...which makes the most sense.

[Duke1632]

I have changed my method over the years. This is my current formula.



Or maybe it is asking my granddaughter who likes the teams with the best mascots...which makes the most sense.

That looks suspiciously EE-oriented...Regardless, glad to see you have the good sense to choose simple integration for your method and leave the tough stuff to the granddaughter. The mascot method will forever be beyond my meager abilities, so I gave up on that years ago.

[smaltzw]

1. Texas Tech at West Virginia
2. TCU at Oklahoma State
3. SMU at Memphis
4. Navy at Toledo
5. Florida at Missouri
6. Georgia Tech
7. Akron
8. Army
9. Colorado State
10. South Alabama
11. Stanford
12. Texas A&M
13. BYU
14. Duke at Virginia
15. Louisiana Tech
16. Arizona State
17. LSU
18. Notre Dame
19. Florida State
20. Utah

[Vileborg]

1. Texas Tech
2. TCU
3. SMU
4. Navy
5. Missouri
6. Georgia Tech
7. Akron
8. Army
9. Colorado State
10. Kent State
11. UCLA
12. Texas A&M
13. Houston
14. Duke
15. North Texas
16. Arizona State
17. LSU
18. USC
19. Florida State
20. Utah