2013 BCS Busters

[Eric]

This isn't really the time or place since we're not even done with this season, but I was going through some future schedules and knowing what I think I know about who is coming back next year, there are a couple BCS Buster candidates on my radar for 2013: Nevada, Fresno State, Ohio, Ball State, Arkansas State, Tulsa, Louisiana Tech, and Northern Illinois.

Northern Illinois isn't returning a ton of their best players, but if any program reloads in the MAC, it's usually Northern Illinois. Their toughest games are against Iowa, Purdue, Ball State, Toledo, and a potential MAC title game (MAC East draw is unknown). I could see them with Jordan Lynch running the table, but I would say a split with the B1G teams is most likely. Ball State has an easier road to hoe. Their offense is young and Pete Lembo is an up and coming star. If he doesn't get lured away this offseason, I expect really good things from Ball State in 2012. Their non-conference slate is against North Texas, Army, Virginia, and Illinois State. They'll definitely face NIU and Toledo. I think it's very possible that the NIU / Ball State winner winds up in the BCS. Ohio will also be in the mix with their only difficult non-conference game being a road date against Louisville. Assuming Darrell Hazel isn't back at Kent State, I believe Ohio, with its returning talent, will be by far the class of the MAC East. This year they had injury problems that stockpiled and that is the main reason they closed out 1-4. Depending on their MAC West draw, they could enter the MAC title game undefeated as well.

Arkansas State should improve in Malzahn's second campaign (provided he isn't somewhere else next year). With an offensive wizard at the helm, losing Ryan Aplin wouldn't be an enormous blow. But check out this non-conference slate: Auburn, Memphis, Idaho, and Arkansas Pine-Bluff. There will still be road mines in conference play against UL Lafayette, UL Monroe, Troy, Western Kentucky, and Middle Tennessee, but I think it's within the realm of possibility. I would put their chances as very unlikely at best, mainly because of the QB question.

Nevada, if they manage to get in, would have to get in with an 11-1 record. They have Oregon and Florida State on their schedule. I know Oregon is a definite loss and Florida State is a long, long, long, long, loooooooong shot. But is it possible? Maybe. If they can compete with Oregon (in Reno) and, by some miracle, shock Florida State, they could be in business with a perfect Mountain West slate. Fresno State's odds of going undefeated are much higher because they get to play Colorado and they host Rutgers. Winning those would put them in a great spot, needing wins over Nevada, San Jose State, San Diego State, Utah State, and Air Force to complete the perfect season (easier said than done). Plus, if either of these schools go 11-1, I'm noticing that a lot more respect is being given to non-BCSers this year. The fact that Kent State and Northern Illinois have a chance at backing into the BCS with one loss on their records and Utah State and San Jose State at 10-2 cracking the back end of the BCS shows me that an undefeated season isn't completely necessary. The Big East will again be without a giant killer next season even with Boise State, so being in the top 16 could get an 11-1 MWC champion there.

C-USA has generally been a lot deeper, but losing UCF, Houston, and SMU to the Big East really opens the door up for Tulsa to find a way into the BCS. They have one definite loss on the schedule (@ Oklahoma), but running the rest of the table next season won't be far-fetched. Their offense should still be potent. They do have some potential losses against Bowling Green and Iowa State along with a possible game against ECU and Marshall, but the 2013 version of C-USA is going to be very mediocre. Going 11-1 is possible, although I wouldn't bet on it. Most of the above also applies to Louisiana Tech, who gets, as of right now, Kansas and Army in their non-conference slate. With C-USA being weakened, they could take advantage and the Tulsa / Louisiana Tech winner may be in the running. Their offense should still hum along next season, provided Sonny Dykes is back. Even if he isn't, odds are they promote from within and keep the system churning out yards. A good deal of their offensive talent will be back.

So if I had to rank the likelihood out of these eight schools next year:

1. Fresno State
2. Ball State
3. Louisiana Tech
4. Northern Illinois
5. Tulsa
6. Ohio
7. Arkansas State
8. Nevada