TCU - Iowa State

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mountainman

Postby mountainman » Mon Jan 02, 2006 11:47 am

If a win over SMU would have moved TCU up at least 8 spots to the #6 position in the final BCS poll then, the way I read this, they and Notre Dame, provided the Irish were in the top 10, would have automatically qualified for the two at-large spots.

colorado_loves_football

Postby colorado_loves_football » Tue Jan 03, 2006 3:47 pm

Does anyone really believe even if TCU had been undefeated they would have been selected by the BCS?
I'ts possible but unlikely for a lot of reasons.
Given they were awarded to Notre Dame (who was all but assured one with their win over Stanford), that leaves OSU, and my guess is that OSU had the inside track for a BCS bid.
But it's possible I suppose they might have taken TCU out of necessity assuming they had gone 11-0, my guess is that they would have been selected by the Fiesta Bowl, who would in all likelihood would have taken OSU (or Notre Dame).
A TCU vs. OSU game would have been interesting from a spectator's standpoint. I think their last game was in 1973, so it's been nearly 35 years since they played each other. All time record is 1-4-1 last win by TCU over OSU in 1957.
And I beileve TCU would have come to play, at the very least they would have done everything posssible to win, but after watching them struggle against what I consider to be a fairly unimpressive team in Iowa St, maybe it's best it didnt' happen.
Still, imagine the friction between myself and Spence, if you thought you saw fireworks earlier, just imagine them had TCU beaten OSU!
I think he'd be crawling on his hands and knees begging for mercy.
But most likely it would have been the other way around, so maybe there really is a God after all.

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Postby Eric » Tue Jan 03, 2006 4:29 pm

Well, I think TCU is a GOOD football team. OSU is a VERY GOOD football team. There is a little bit of a difference. I don't think TCU would've been BCS worthy, just wait a few years, I think a squad like the one from 2003 will come around, and just maybe pull off a "BCS Buster" season, considering there will be 4 open spots for the at-large teams next season, it is even more likely.
Running bowl/MSU/OSU record '05-present: 11-32

colorado_loves_football

Postby colorado_loves_football » Tue Jan 03, 2006 5:12 pm

My interpretation (assuming I understand it) is that after all the 'automatic' selections are awarded, which translates into 6 conference champions (ACC, SEC, Big XII, Pac Ten, Big Ten) then the provisions come into play.
So one (or both) would have needed to happen in order to secure a bid for TCU. Notre Dame would have had to finish outside the top ten, or TCU would have had to finish ranked 4-6, if both happen, then my guess is the bowl has a choice between the two, because there is a provision for Notre Dame, regardless.
Ohio State gets in as a 'provisional' Big Ten team, and at #4 I think that means they occupy one BCS 'at large' bid, solely upon rank. But if TCU is 11-0 are they ranked behind a 9-2 OSU team? It's an interesting question, really one one that doesn't have a clear answer (to me anyway). Most (in my opinion) would put TCU at 11-0 higher than OSU, but since OSU lost to two excellent teams, it's very possible OSU occupies #4 irrespective of how TCU does. In which case, TCU has to hope that a top 6 ranking secures itself of the BCS bid over Notre Dame, who I believe were ranked in top ten (the provision to be selected).
So, it's still a bit of a mystery as to whether or not TCU would have been selected even with 'automatic' selection criteria. At 11-0 are they necessarily 8 (or 9) spots ahead of where they are now?
We can maybe use 2003 as a reference point. My recollection is that had they finished the year undefeated, they were 'in' as an at large team, but that year, it's possible it was a simpler selection process.
Notre Dame always complicates things. I"ts possible if TCU goes 11-0 Notre Dame doesn't get in, but I think that's something of a stretch, because they cater to Notre Dame in fact I think there were some who didn't want the 9 game provision to be in place, but one year N.D. Was selected with a 6-5 record, so for sake of competitiveness, they implemented it.
It's an interesting queston and I'm not sure anyone's answered it.
Probably it comes down to marketing, would more people be interested in a N.D. vs. OSU or a TCU vs. OSU pairing in the Fiesta Bowl.
If TCU was 11-0 there might be more pressure for the FIesta Bowl to take them regardless of how Notre Dame does, and with OSU basically 'guaranteed' a spot, it's probably a question of ethics, which one is more deserving of a bid.
That being said, I think the Fiesta Bowl takes Notre Dame just like they did this year, and TCU maybe it selected to play in the Cotton Bowl, over Texas Tech. (the Cotton Bowl traditionally takes a SWC team).
That would pair TCU and Alabama, which might not have been a bad pairing regardless. I'm not convinced TCU wasn't a better team this year than Texas Tech, but they didn't play against each other.
Guess we'll find out the answer to that question next year, in Lubbock Texas.

colorado_loves_football

Postby colorado_loves_football » Tue Jan 03, 2006 5:15 pm

FYI, under next years rules, TCU gets in, so does Oregon, so in all likelihood they would have played in the 'fifth' bowl, which this year (believe it or not) was the Rose Bowl!
TCU gets in becaues there's a provision for a team ranked in top-15, sort of like how Notre Dame gets in this year. So at the very least they are covering all bases!

colorado_loves_football

Postby colorado_loves_football » Tue Jan 03, 2006 5:17 pm

I'll grant you it was a 'sloppy' win, but I think it proved TCU can play against good competition (if Iowa State is good competition) and win.
But it wasnt' necessarily overwhelming evidence TCU is BCS 'worthy'.
So I'm disappointed, mostly in how it went, first quarter excepted.

colorado_loves_football

Postby colorado_loves_football » Tue Jan 03, 2006 5:21 pm

mountainman wrote:Here's what I found within the Automatic Qualification Standards:

Automatic Qualification for At-Large Selection:

a. If one or more teams other than Notre Dame qualify for automatic selection under this provision, Notre Dame shall also qualify provided it is ranked in the top ten or has won at least nine games.


I think that's a nice way of saying "sorry TCU" if Notre Dame is ranked in top ten, they go, regardless, so unless (by some miracle) TCU is ranked higher than OSU, TCU isn't selected, even if they finish in top 6 BCS.
They cater to Notre Dame, they take Notre Dame over any team if they are eligible, so the answer is that TCU isn't selected.

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Postby Eric » Tue Jan 03, 2006 5:25 pm

Well, actually, TCU would've likely played in the Fiesta Bowl. They'd want to keep the Pac-10 vs. Big 10 thing alive, so it would've likely been Oregon and Ohio State. But then, it would be TCU and Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl. Or would it? I don't think casual fans would find that game an attractive matchup, so would they disregard the Rose Bowl tradition for ratings? Possibly.
Running bowl/MSU/OSU record '05-present: 11-32

colorado_loves_football

Postby colorado_loves_football » Tue Jan 03, 2006 5:38 pm

ERic I assume you mean if this year's rules were applied to next year's teams.
Yes you are probably right, for a traditional Big Ten Vs. Pac Ten pairing that would haev put Ohio St, and Oregon together, but I'm not sure that's how they operate.
For example, the national championship game is determined by rank alone.
Then each bowl gets to pick a team from the remaining teams that are available, which may mean that the Rose Bowl doesn't worry a lot about Big Ten vs. Pac Ten, but let's assume they take Penn State, to secure a Big Ten team. Then the Fiesta Bowl takes a team, lets say they take Notre Dame (likely), then it's Sugar Bowls turn, and for sake of argument let's assume they stick to their guns and take W. Virginia, then it's possible TCU is paired against FSU in the Orange Bowl.
That would give the Fiesta Bowl its Notre Dame, Ohio State pairing.
And my guess is that's how it would have happened, as FSU is viewed as sort of 'unfit' to be there, so is TCU so they might have wanted to pair them together for competitive purposes.

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Postby Eric » Tue Jan 03, 2006 5:40 pm

I suppose you could be right. Very possible. But for geographical purposes, don't you think TCU would be in the Fiesta?
Running bowl/MSU/OSU record '05-present: 11-32

colorado_loves_football

Postby colorado_loves_football » Tue Jan 03, 2006 5:47 pm

Well it's a tricky question, sort of similar to if the Fiesta Bowl has a choice do they select TCU or Notre Dame?
If both are eligible I believe Fiesta Bowl takes Notre Dame, and I believe they have first choice (or second) in the five bowl rotation, because they lose their 'automatic' pick to national championship game. And I believe Rose Bowl takes Penn State, and would in all likelihood want to secure a Big Ten vs. Pac Ten pairing (like you mentioned) so I believe it's Oregon vs. Penn State in the Rose Bowl.
The Sugar Bowl I believe is next, I think and probably they 'stick' with W. Virginia, but outside chance they take Ohio State (a possiblity), in which case, W. Virginia is headed to Orange Bowl.
In that case i'ts possible we have a TCU vs. Notre Dame pairing in the Fiesta Bowl, so yes, it's very possible that's how it plays out.

colorado_loves_football

Postby colorado_loves_football » Tue Jan 03, 2006 5:59 pm

I think (again based upon this year's results) the answer to whether or not TCU goes, can be based upon the fact that Oregon wasn't selected this year (#5 BCS poll).
So that would seem to indicate that unless TCU were to finish ranked higher that Ohio State (a possiblity) then TCU is denied a BCS bid this year, in favor of Ohio State, it's just the case of too many teams and not enough places to put them, and with Notre Dame in top 6 I dont really see any way they don't go.
So it's either Ohio State or TCU.

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Postby Spence » Tue Jan 03, 2006 6:28 pm

TCU isn't physical enough or fast enough to beat Ohio State. It is that simple.
"History doesn't always repeat itself but it often rhymes." - Mark Twain

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Eric
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Postby Eric » Tue Jan 03, 2006 6:40 pm

Well, I'd say most of us are in agreeement.
Running bowl/MSU/OSU record '05-present: 11-32

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Postby Spence » Tue Jan 03, 2006 8:20 pm

Or any of the top teams in a BCS conference for that matter.


That was what I meant to imply. :lol:
"History doesn't always repeat itself but it often rhymes." - Mark Twain


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