Don't Understand Congrove's Algorithmns

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billybud
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Don't Understand Congrove's Algorithmns

Postby billybud » Fri Jul 25, 2008 2:22 pm

Preseason 2008 Congrove power rankings...

He has Ball State as more powerful than Purdue, Michigan State, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Northwestern, Minnesota...

You think that Ball State is stronger than eight of the eleven Big Ten teams? I don't.

He has Ball State as stronger than Alabama, California, Rutgers, Maryland, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, South Carolina, Florida State, North Carolina, Arkansas, Nebraska, Notre Dame, UCLA, Colorado, Georgia Tech and more...

I don't see it...I wouldn't take Ball State straight up against most, if not all, of the teams mentioned.

I do not understand his methodology..I sure don't "buy" it.
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Re: Don't Understand Congrove's Algorithmns

Postby Eric » Fri Jul 25, 2008 2:38 pm

I think we've been over this before :lol:

His rankings have been pretty accurate. Ball State will actually be a really good football team this year. They return everybody on offense and there are probably 6 or 7 guys that will be in NFL camps within the next two falls.
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Re: Don't Understand Congrove's Algorithmns

Postby billybud » Fri Jul 25, 2008 3:02 pm

So Eric...does that mean that you think that Ball State is more powerful than the teams listed? Your reply seemed more "politic" than on subject...
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Re: Don't Understand Congrove's Algorithmns

Postby Eric » Fri Jul 25, 2008 3:11 pm

Not against Alabama, California, Florida State, or UCLA, but they're in that echelon of mid-level BCS conference teams.
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Re: Don't Understand Congrove's Algorithmns

Postby billybud » Fri Jul 25, 2008 3:48 pm

Who is mid level BCS?

Arkansas, Notre Dame, Michigan, Iowa?

Other than Duke...who in the ACC would you take Ball State straight up against? The SEC?

Now...Ball State may be improving...but they have never won a game against the ACC (0-3), Big Ten (0-19), Big East (0-9), Big 12 (0-8), SEC 0-5), CUSA, PAC 10...SWC, Big West..or any other conference.

Ball State does not have a single win against any team at any time outside the MAC...not one...

Maybe things have changed lately but I have to see it.
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Re: Don't Understand Congrove's Algorithmns

Postby Derek » Fri Jul 25, 2008 3:56 pm

It definately seems a little odd to me. Returning a certain number of players should not be a part of the formula, unless you can take into account who those players are, which you can't, because then it would not be a formula.
They’re either going to run the ball here or their going to pass it.

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Re: Don't Understand Congrove's Algorithmns

Postby billybud » Fri Jul 25, 2008 4:51 pm

In comparing CCR with the five preseason football mags...there are some interesting anomalies, where CCR is off the concensus.

I look at the anomalies to try to figure out the methodology..

1...of the six sources, CCR is the only one to rank Boise
2...of the six sources, CCR is the only won to rank Cincinnati
3...of the six sources, CCR is the only one to rank Boston College
4...of the six sources, CCR is the only one to rank Tulsa

Hard for me to figure what he has going on...Tulsa projected to be ranked #20 is a flyer IMHO
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Re: Don't Understand Congrove's Algorithmns

Postby donovan » Fri Jul 25, 2008 8:46 pm

I have no idea what is the criterion for preseason rankings....and to a great extent other than the novelty of it all...not sure it makes a difference. I do think Mr. Congrove does one thing others do not. He does rank some mid majors in the top group. What we do know, is there will be mid majors in the top 25 in the end of the season..well..always seems to be some...So ranking them at the begining may more accurately reflect what the end will be like. Other polls make the Boises and Tulsas work their way up....which is ok...because in the end..there are only a handful that will be crowned with the laurels of self deceit....
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Re: Don't Understand Congrove's Algorithmns

Postby Derek » Fri Jul 25, 2008 10:08 pm

donovan wrote:because in the end..there are only a handful that will be crowned with the laurels of self deceit....


........ :? ........... :lol:
They’re either going to run the ball here or their going to pass it.

The fewer rules a coach has, the fewer rules there are for players to break.

See, well ya see, the thing is, he should have caught that ball. But the ball is bigger than his hands.

- John Madden

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Re: Don't Understand Congrove's Algorithmns

Postby Eric » Fri Jul 25, 2008 10:40 pm

billybud wrote:Who is mid level BCS?

Arkansas, Notre Dame, Michigan, Iowa?

Other than Duke...who in the ACC would you take Ball State straight up against? The SEC?

Now...Ball State may be improving...but they have never won a game against the ACC (0-3), Big Ten (0-19), Big East (0-9), Big 12 (0-8), SEC 0-5), CUSA, PAC 10...SWC, Big West..or any other conference.

Ball State does not have a single win against any team at any time outside the MAC...not one...

Maybe things have changed lately but I have to see it.


Ball State would have a good chance against Miami, NC State, North Carolina, Duke, possibly Boston College, Virginia definitely, maybe Georgia Tech depending on how their offense works out. I think you're underestimating the Cards, this could be one of those twice-in-a-decade kind of MAC teams. Kind of like Miami was with a junior QB who went on to a pretty good career in the NFL. Nate Davis is that kind of QB this year.

I'm not sure how else to tell you, but at least offensively, over half will be in NFL camps in either 2009 or 2010. Not every team can say that.
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Re: Don't Understand Congrove's Algorithmns

Postby Eric » Fri Jul 25, 2008 10:42 pm

I think the CCR puts a really heavy emphasis on returning starters and what happened over the course of the previous season. But, really, does it matter that much? There are a few somewhat questionable rankings on a year-to-year basis, but it doesn't change the fact that its a pretty accurate ranking system.

Also, there's nothing wrong with ranking Cincinnati. Oh yeah, USF is 0-2 versus the Bearcats and have posted the same conference record back-to-back, but they're supposedly on another level if you ask the talking heads.
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Re: Don't Understand Congrove's Algorithmns

Postby billybud » Sat Jul 26, 2008 1:29 pm

Steele bills himself as the most accurate preseason over the last 9 years...

Eric...good "transitive re South Florida...how come they aren't talking up Rutgers (2-0 last two years over USF)? Or UConn" UConn has won two of last three...

I think that Cincy is pretty decent...USF made their bones by beating a nine win Auburn...Cincy beat a nine win Oregon State...they didn't get the same respect because O State doesn't have the SEC aura.

Chime in Donovan...a one, a two..

oh...and the fact that Cincy is 8-6 vs the MAC since 2000 doesn't win a lot of respect...not when Michigan State and Indiana are 8-0 vs the MAC in that period (for those of us that love transitives). And I plead guilty...I use them all of the time.
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Re: Don't Understand Congrove's Algorithmns

Postby Eric » Sat Jul 26, 2008 3:19 pm

The only point that I was making is that Cincinnati doesn't get very much national respect while USF are recognized as the darling upstarts of the conference. I was just pointing out that Cincinnati hasn't done too bad for themselves. When you have people left and right predicting that they'll miss out on a bowl game behind Pitt, Louisville, and UConn, that sounds like a lot of disrespect to me.

And, when you look at the Big East newbies, you have to look at where the programs stand as of 2005. Cincinnati was an average C-USA team while they were there but the recruiting and coaching has been cranked up a notch since they moved to the Big East. USF didn't do much until they moved to a BCS conference, either. So, screw the fact that USF has had a complete change starting in 2005, let's count stats from 2000 to discredit their accomplishments. Doesn't make a lot of sense.
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Re: Don't Understand Congrove's Algorithmns

Postby billybud » Sat Jul 26, 2008 6:24 pm

Eric...where USF gets respect is that they beat 11 win WVU teams back to back the last two years...Cincinnati may have beat USF...but they didn't beat the conference big dog...

Beating a WVU or Ohio State gets you respect...
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Re: Don't Understand Congrove's Algorithmns

Postby donovan » Sat Jul 26, 2008 10:37 pm

billybud wrote:...they didn't get the same respect because O State doesn't have the SEC aura.

Chime in Donovan...a one, a two..



For that they can be grateful...

What I find amusing is when it comes to polling...I constantly here the cry of take the human element out of it...leave it to the computers (understanding...I not buy into the theory that computer programing is without prejudice...) but the cry goes on...they we hear the chant....My school is not respected....I think respect is a human emotion....not sure computers can respect....well..up here in Microsoft country there may be some affairs of a salacious nature with computers...I digress...anyway.......

My money is that the PAC Ten will be shaken up in the standings by years end....think the shuffle is on...

Watch for UCLA and California....
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