Big East Fearless Predictions, Nov. 24

[wvjohn]

Big East Game of the Week: Connecticut (9-2) at West Virginia (9-1) 3:30 EST, ABC

Why to watch:

There are nine BCS bowl slots that remain open. One will be filled in Morgantown Saturday evening. West Virginia hosts Connecticut for the Big East title and a trip to one of college football’s five premier bowl games in January. For the home team, the stakes will be even higher. Losses by Oregon and Oklahoma popped the Mountaineers up to No. 3 in the latest BCS rankings, meaning two more wins and some help from the South winner in the Big 12 title game could propel the ‘eers into the National Championship game. Having already far exceeded expectations in 2007, Connecticut has a chance to torch them with an upset win on Saturday. For a Husky team that’s been to exactly one bowl game—the 2004 Motor City Bowl—in its brief history in the FBS, this game represents a massive opportunity to put the program’s blueprint for national notoriety into hyperdrive.

Why Connecticut might win:

The Husky defense has been a rock all year, holding opponents to just 14 points a game, while consistently winning the turnover margin. Although the unit is short on star power, it’s fundamentally sound and prone to preventing the types of big plays that have become such a staple in the West Virginia attack. Connecticut will rely on a small-ball formula that’s worked all season, solid defense, a relentless running game, and ball protection.

Why West Virginia might win:

When you face the Mountaineers, specifically QB Pat White, all of the defensive statistics go out the window. Yeah, the Connecticut defense has been surprisingly feisty, but the West Virginia speed and complexity present a challenge that the Huskies haven’t seen in 2007. Once the Mounties start rolling in front of an electrified home crowd, UConn won’t have the weapons on offense to mount a comeback. The Huskies sport one of the conference’s worst offenses, a one-dimensional group that won’t move the sticks on the nation’s No. 4 defense.

Who to watch:

What’s been up with Steve Slaton this season? A Heisman contender entering the year, the junior has yet to reach 1,000 yards rushing or deliver one of those monster games that were so commonplace in 2005 and 2006. Although the blame can be spread out in a number of areas, notably the line, there’s no doubt that West Virginia needs more than the 80 yards a game he’s been averaging in the second half of the year. If Slaton can loosen up the Connecticut defense with a couple of long sprints, it’ll open up the running lanes for White to bolt for daylight.

What will happen:

Connecticut has been a great story, but the clock is about to strike 12 on the Huskies. There’s no way this upstart program is leaving Milan Puskar Stadium with the Big East title that West Virginia feels belongs to them. The Mountaineers will shut down the Husky attack, while getting another MVP-type performance on offense from White.

CFN Prediction: West Virginia 34 … Connecticut 13 ... Line: West Virginia -17.5
Must See Rating: (5 The inside of your eyelids after eating two pounds of turkey - 1 The inside of a gym with every 120 calories equaling a mile on the treadmill) ...4

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Big East Saturday, November 24th

South Florida (8-3) at Pittsburgh (4-6) 12:00 EST, ESPN GamePlan

Why to watch:

South Florida is officially out of its mid-season slumber, courtesy of lopsided wins over Syracuse and Louisville in consecutive weeks. Saturday’s 55-17 demolition of the Cardinals was far more reminiscent of the team that had climbed to No. 2 in the polls in mid-October than the one that recently snapped a three-game losing streak. The Bulls have lost their two outdoor games up North this season, so they’ll be looking to buck the trend on this week’s trip to Pennsylvania, while improving their postseason outlook. Pittsburgh’s already longshot hopes of playing a 13th game became even more remote following last weekend’s loss at Rutgers, another blown opportunity in a close game. At best, the Panthers can upset South Florida and West Virginia to get to .500, but even that’s unlikely to bring a bowl invitation. While this season will be remembered as the debut of RB LeSean McCoy, to reach a higher level in 2008, the program needs more consistency at quarterback, either from injured junior Bill Stull or freshman Pat Bostick.

Why South Florida might win:

Without balance, you’re simply not going to have much success against this Bull defense. The unit is too fast and opportunistic, particularly in pass defense, to get beaten when it knows who’ll be touching the ball on most downs. With Bostick still learning on the job, the Pitt passing game has been abysmal, ranking 105th nationally, which will allow South Florida safeties Nate Allen and Carlton Williams to press up to stop McCoy. The Panthers are averaging just 18 points in Big East games, a number they’ll labor to reach Saturday afternoon.

Why Pittsburgh might win:

The South Florida offense has been anything but consistent this fall, often relying too heavily on one player, QB Matt Grothe. The Panthers’ strength all year has been the play of the defense, which ranks No. 9 nationally, while giving up only 23 points a game. With LB Scott McKillop tackling everything in sight, and the secondary allowing just one touchdown pass per game, Pittsburgh will put a stop to the Bulls’ recent success on offense. Don’t underestimate South Florida’s problems playing in cold weather, which has been an issue since it joined the league.

Who to watch:

South Florida is a completely different team when it provides support to Grothe on offense. In the wins over Syracuse and Louisville, freshman RB Mike Ford ran for 274 yards and four touchdowns, and, not coincidentally, the Bulls rang up 96 points. If USF is going to reach 10 wins, it must continue getting help from Ford in order to relieve some pressure from Grothe.

What will happen:

Although the Pittsburgh defense will keep things from getting out of control, Bostick or Kevan Smith versus that air tight South Florida secondary is a recipe for Panther turnovers. The Bulls will brave the elements behind Ford and the defense, remaining in the hunt for a berth in the Gator Bowl.

CFN Prediction: South Florida 27 … Pitt 16... Line: Pitt -11
Must See Rating: (5 The inside of your eyelids after eating two pounds of turkey - 1 The inside of a gym with every 120 calories equaling a mile on the treadmill) ...2.5

Cincinnati (8-3) at Syracuse (2-9) 7:15, ESPNU

Why to watch:

From the crowd at Nippert Stadium to the stakes, everything for Cincinnati was huge in last weekend’s 28-23 loss to West Virginia. Good luck getting up for a trip to frigid Upstate New York to face 2-9 Syracuse. While the Bearcats fell short in their bid to stay afloat in the Big East race, they still have a chance to win nine games for the first time since 1976, and remain in the hunt for the next best thing to a BCS bowl game, a Gator Bowl invitation. For the Orange and its fans, the offseason cannot come soon enough. The program has had one shining moment, a Sept. 22 upset of Louisville, and even that’s been marginalized by the Cardinals’ season-long collapse. Once this weekend’s game is completed, all eyes will turn to head coach Greg Robinson, who’s trying to survive a 7-27 record and only faint progress since he replaced Paul Pasqualoni following the 2004 season.

Why Cincinnati might win:

The Orange has gone two months without scoring more than 20 points in a game, a trend that’ll continue against a Bearcat D that defends the run as well as any Big East team, and is No. 3 nationally in turnover margin. On offense, Cincy’s mix of Ben Mauk’s passing and a deep stable of runners will more than a beat up Syracuse defense can handle. The Orange is near the bottom of the league in almost every defensive category, allowing 28 rushing touchdowns and getting worse as the season winds down.

Why Syracuse might win:

If the Orange has a prayer of taking some momentum into the offseason, it’ll need to take shots downfield on a Cincinnati secondary that yields 250 yards a game, and has been vulnerable to the big play. Whether it’s Andrew Robinson or Cameron Dantley calling signals, he’ll need to locate WR Mike Williams, who has caught a touchdown pass in a school-record eight games. Coming off what was billed as the biggest game in school history, the Bearcats will be prone to a serious letdown playing in the sleepy Carrier Dome against a lackluster opponent.

Who to watch:

Entering the season, first-year Cincinnati head coach Brian Kelly wondered aloud if he had enough quality receivers to successfully run the spread offense. With one game left in the regular season, he’s found his building blocks of the future led by freshman long ball hitter Marcus Barnett. Barnett leads the Bearcats with 11 touchdowns, coming off a breakout 10-catch, 210-yard effort in the loss to West Virginia.

What will happen:

If Cincinnati is sluggish Saturday night, Kelly won’t let it last for long. By the second quarter, Mauk and the offense will be gutting the Syracuse defense, while the Bearcats capitalize on the mistake-prone Orange attack.

CFN Prediction: Cincinnati 38 … Syracuse 14 ... Line: Cincinnati -20
Must See Rating: (5 The inside of your eyelids after eating two pounds of turkey - 1 The inside of a gym with every 120 calories equaling a mile on the treadmill) ...1.5

My picks are the same as CFN

WVU
USF
Cincy