And The Race Is On ...

[Cane from the Bend]

--------------------------------------------------------------

Three regular season games to go, and we are in a place where multiple teams from multiple conferences have a chance to vie for their conference championship games.

What is going on in the Big XII ..?

Gatecrasher BYU is in the lead, and undefeated.

Are they really the best team?

Having lost to Texas Tech, is Iowa State the 2cnd best team?

Is Colorado really a contender, now ..? Or are they just here to ruin someone else's day .?.

From the Top: (Season) / (Big XII)

BYU (8-0) / (5-0)
Iowa State (7-1) / (4-1)
Colorado (6-2) / (4-1)
Kansas State (7-2) / (4-2)
Texas Tech (6-3) / (4-2)

Obviously, BYU is on the fast track to the Championship Game. Being undefeated puts them first place in conference. Their next game is the annual rivalry with Utah. And if ever there were a time to take advantage of beating the Utes, this is definitely that time. However, if you're Utah, what a better way to ruin BYU's season than to pull off the improbable in the Holy War?

Iowa State has just one loss. And that one loss is to conference opponent Texas Tech ... actually it was tonight. The Cyclones only hold a small lead over Colorado due to the Buffaloes second loss; albeit an out of conference loss to Nebraska.Colorado & Iowa State do not play each other in the regular season, so this will have to come down to some form of a tiebreaker {unless of course, other losses are incurred before then}

Colorado is sitting there in third place. Outside of BYU, they may arguably be playing the best ball inside of the Big XII. Their loss to K-State holds them back from being in a tie for first. But having the same conference record as Iowa St, it's going to be interesting down the ever shortening road. As mentioned above, they do not pay the Cyclones. So the schedule left in front of them is very important. They have Texas Tech, Utah, Kansas and Oklahoma State. Texas Tech has really become a feisty team here, over the last couple of weeks. This may be the bump in the road that keeps the Buffaloes out of the Big XII title game.

Kansas State was figured to be the team of the conference, coming into the year. And, at times they really looked the part. The loss they had in Provo did not seem indicative of who they truly were, rather, a step into the perfect storm is what it looked like. That is, until this week against miserable Houston, of all teams. In this case, there actually was a storm. The rain was pelting down heavy, and the Wildcats just couldn't put it into 2cnd gear. The loss tonight gives them 2 In-conference defeats. Yet, they hold a head-to-head victory over Colorado, and finish the season with a game in Ames, versus Iowa State. Which keeps their Big XII title hopes alive.

Texas Tech took down the top standing team. They beat undefeated Iowa State tonight. So, head-to-head they hold the advantage. They will need for the Cyclones to lose one more game in order to jump them, in-conference. But they have the chance to gain ground on Colorado this next weekend, as the Red Raiders have a Home Stand vs the Buffaloes, on Saturday. Kansas State may be the wrench in the machine. They do not have the Wildcats on their schedule, and the game K-State plays against ISU could shut the door on the Raiders.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

What about that mess called the SEC ..?

Georgia is back in the driver's seat, with Texas A&M having beaten LSU last week, only to turn right around and lose to South Carolina this week.

There is no real clear leader, as there are no undefeated teams left in-conference. With every team having a conference loss.

From the Top: (Season) / (SEC)

Georgia (7-1) / (5-1)
Texas A&M (7-2) / (5-1)
Tennessee (7-1) / (4-1)
Texas (7-1) / (3-1)
LSU (6-2) / (3-1)
Vanderbilt (6-3) / (3-2)
Ole Miss (7-2) / (3-2)
Alabama (6-2) / (3-2)
Missouri (6-2) / (2-2)

Georgia lost to Alabama, but beat Texas. Coming up, they have Ole Miss and Tennessee on their schedule. They do not play any other team from that lot above.

Texas A&M lost to South Carolina, giving them their first conference loss on the year {and it was ugly}. They beat both LSU and Missouri from the above list. And they have a game versus the Longhorns to finish out the regular season, on November 30th. None of the others appear on their schedule.

Tennessee lost to Arkansas of all teams. Then they turn around and beat Alabama. The Razorbacks are really a nonplayer in all of this, so the drawback is having the Loss in the conference column. Of the teams listed, the Vols still have Georgia & Vanderbilt on their schedule.

Texas lost to UGA, but they beat Vanderbilt. Of the teams left above in play for the SEC title, Texas A&M is the only one remaining on the Longhorns' schedule. Not exactly the impressive resume the media would have you believe. However, with recency bias {UT's appearance in last season's playoff}, and brand recognition, it may not matter. Whether or not they get the SEC Championship bid is what's in play. Finishing out, even with a loss to A&M, they still might get a playoff at large spot.

LSU beat Ole Miss, setting up an anticipated match up with Texas A&M. The Aggies won that game, giving LSU a conference loss. The Tigers have both Alabama & Vanderbilt left on their schedule. The rest of that bunch are not on the schedule. So the head-to-head "L" vs Texas A&M is crucial.

Vanderbilt lost a close game to Mizzou, then turned around and beat Bama. They knocked Kentucky out of the conversation, but then lost to Texas. They play what looks like a fairly tough South Carolina team. So, if they lose that one, then they will fall into spoiler position for others. If they beat the Gamecocks, Vandy still has games versus LSU and Tennessee. Seriously, of the teams above, the Commodores & the Tide are the only teams that compete against 5 appearing on that list. Since they hold the head-to-head win over Bama, they could really shake things up going forward.

Ole Miss, has a loss to LSU. In the greater context of things, so far, this is how far it has gone for them. The only other team from the above list that appears on their schedule, is Georgia. And that game is coming up this weekend. Their other loss, was to hapless Kentucky. To put it into better context; Kentucky is 1-6 in-conference. And the Wildcats sole SEC win, is against Ole Miss. Honestly, they have to beat Georgia this week, in order to keep any semblance of being a contender. The loss would be their 3rd, and undoubtedly finish them. Many in the media are already saying the Rebs are not a playoff team. Some even say they shouldn't be ranked. Losing to UGA would only prove that sentiment.

Alabama, is Georgia's loss. They also got a win versus Missouri. That really is what they're hanging their hat on at this point. The other conference front runners they've played, Vanderbilt & Tennessee both beat the Tide. Bama gets one reprieve this week, if they beat LSU in Death Valley. Winning that game keeps their hopes alive. However, with Georgia, A&M, Tennessee and Texas all having just one SEC loss, the Tide are going to need some help.

Missouri is as close to out of it as they can get. They are 2-2 in SEC play, so mathematically they are still in it. They hold a win over Vanderbilt, however, their conference losses are to the Tide and the Aggies. They really need for everyone else to lose, at this point, except for Vanderbilt. Because none of the others in the running are on their schedule going forward.

I think the SEC is showing us precisely why we either need to go back to some divisional format. Or, add another conference game to the schedule each season.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Big 10 and the ACC are actually the two conferences that are almost settled at this point.

The ACC, Miami and Pitt entered the night undefeated.

Clemson and SMU both had one loss coming into tonight. Though, neither had a conference loss.

Miami beat Duke, remains undefeated. Miami's road ahead isn't the most difficult slate, though a couple of maybes are there.

@ Georgia Tech
Home vs Wake Forest
@ Syracuse

The Hurricanes will be favored versus all of these opponents. But have had recent history against Ga Tech, who has a habit of biting the `Canes at opportune moments. And Syracuse in the Dome is no gimme. Especially if Miami goes into that game undefeated in the top 5. The environment will be ruckus.

SMU beat Pitt like a pinata. They remain undefeated in-conference. Their one loss, is to undefeated BYU out of the Big XII.
{imagine this could happen; BYU & SMU winning the Big 12 & ACC}
The Mustangs schedule going forward is rather favorable:

Home vs Boston College
@ Virginia
Home vs Cal

Pitt played SMU, and the Mustangs wiped the field with the Panthers.

Clemson played Louisville, and the Cardinals kicked the Tigers around like loose AstroTurf.

This leaves Miami & SMU as the only two teams from the ACC remaining, without a conference loss.

Neither Miami or SMU play Clemson or each other in-season. So that is out of the equation.

Pitt has a loss directly to SMU, so the Mustangs would have to lose two conference games to fall behind.

Whereas the Panthers & Hurricanes are not scheduled to play.

Clemson has both Va Tech and Pitt coming up in back-to-back weeks.

Since Pitt has one less seasonal loss than Clemson, but same conference record, I believe the Panthers hold the position just above the Tigers. The head-to-head match up could be key in this race. Although, I wouldn't overlook the Hokies. If Clemson loses this coming weekend, then they will be reduced to spoiler against Pitt.

However, Pitt has Louisville the week right after they play Clemson, so that could knock them out of any conversation, if the Cardinals should win.
{Even if Pitt gets the victory over Clemson on the 16th}

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Big Ten has Oregon atop the Heap.

Indiana is right there, also remaining undefeated.

Ohio State is next in line, with one conference loss to Oregon.

Then Penn State falls into place, with one loss to the Buckeyes.

After that is Iowa and Minnesota, both with two conference losses.

You can basically hit the eject button on Minnesota, because one of their conference losses is to the Hawkeyes. So, that puts them squarely behind Iowa.

Iowa has a loss to the Buckeyes, which puts them two more conference losses behind Ohio St.

Ohio State, with head-to-head loss by the Buckeyes to the Ducks hurts their chances. However, here's the up tick. The Hoosiers. OSU still has Indiana on the schedule. And, the Buckeyes get them in the shoe. This win would put them directly into 2cnd place, and set for a rematch with Oregon in the Big 10 title game.

Indiana is still undefeated. 9-0 for the first time in program history. The Hoosiers have just 3 games remaining on their schedule. Next up, Michigan in Bloomington. A win here really makes the game with Ohio State for the Big 10 title appearance. They could lose to Michigan, if they beat the Buckeyes in Columbus. Then, OSU would need Purdue to beat the Hoosiers in the Old Oaken Bucket game. However, that game is also in Bloomington.

As for Oregon, they've already played, and beaten the Buckeyes. They do not play any of the other three teams listed above.
The remaining schedule for the Ducks:

Home vs Maryland
@ Wisconsin
Home vs Washington.

They are basically a lock.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Anyhow, those just my post week ten fallout observations.

.
.
.

[Mountainman]

Good stuff, Cane……… after reading it my thought was, ‘You reckon any letters of resignation from CFP Selection Committee Members will show up this week.



.

[Cane from the Bend]

Good stuff, Cane……… after reading it my thought was, ‘You reckon any letters of resignation from CFP Selection Committee Members will show up this week.



.

Well, at least the good news for them, is Notre Dame keeps winning, and the conferences have to organize their own shelves where it comes to in house Championship Games.

I did notice one mistake I made, which is, with only 3 games left for Indiana, Ohio St will have to win that game to be in the Big 10 Championship.
{actually I noticed several typos and missing words, so I amended the post some; ah! Late night typing}

If Indiana wins, then the Buckeyes would have to rely on the Playoff Committee to place them in the tournament on name brand. {which they will}

Ohio State's loss to Oregon means a loss to Indiana head-to-head gives them two conference losses. It also means, Indiana could lose to both Michigan & Purdue to finish with the same in-conference record as the Buckeyes. The Hoosiers get the Big 10 Title Game bid.

In contrast, if Indiana beats both Michigan & Purdue, losing to OSU means they're out of the Big Ten championship, and maybe the Playoff. Because the Hoosier name brand isn't as valued a commodity.

So, a 10-2 Buckeyes team could get in, where an 11-1 Indiana team might get left out.

However, a 12-1 Indiana team, with a win over Ohio State but a loss in the Big 10 title game vs Oregon could get in. And you'd have 3 Big Ten teams.

A 13-0 Big 10 Champion Indiana gets the auto-bid and bye, where a 12-1 Oregon is still going to get a playoff at large.

Ohio State is likely to get in, either way. Because their 2 losses would be to both representatives of the Big 10. Meaning their strength of Schedule remains in tact. A loss to a team that won the Big 10 Championship, and a loss to a team whose only loss is for the Big 10 title.

It is the real win-win-win for the B1G offices, and what they are secretly hoping for.

.
.
.

[Mountainman]

……it’s such a simple game, where one either wins or loses and then compounded by who you played, where you played, how you won or how you lost, where black and white become akin to looking at a rainbow through a Kaleidoscope.



.