Week 13 Elucidations

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Spence
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Re: Week 13 Elucidations

Postby Spence » Sun Nov 25, 2018 7:52 pm

donovan wrote:
Mountainman wrote:
Spence wrote:I agree with that, but my problem with picking the four best teams is that we don’t know who is the best four, or the best ten for that matter. If any of us did we would make a lot of money betting the lines and the spreads. Neither does the committee, though, I believe they try. We can compare teams easily after they play, but before—we are all wrong a lot. I think the system is rigged against the non blue blood programs.



Well, we have proven beyond doubt that our picking is suspect, putting it gently since donovan will probably read this and he’s awful!!!! :lol: But the difference between us and the Committee is they rank teams after the games are played, and I agree they try....... and for sure it’s a steeper climb for the non-blue bloods, but inherently the lack of quality depth and opponent strength on those teams takes its toll.


I really suck at picking. Wife is the exception. I married well and can not be responsible for Mrs. donovan's bad decision making.

My exception to the Committee is, I think they have a multi-purpose goal. It is not solely about the 'best' four teams. It is spurred by the financial success of the event, even at the expense of many bowl games.

By design, they now can have volatile swings in their rankings. A team that is number 10 one week, eg Ohio State, could become number 5 the next week. Though this sounds good it allows the group to put in the four that ensures ESPN's goals are met.

Other sports that rank have some kind of point system, tennis, NASCAR, etc. A sport that loosey-goosey ranks are always suspect, eg boxing; because of the gambling, ticket sales, etc. That is where football is right now, a gambler's (the one making book) paradise.

The only thing that sucks more than I do, is the Central Committee. Muller needs to quit the investigation of President Trump's Russian connection and take on College Football Playoffs.


I agree with your point on the committee Donovan. Also my wife makes really bad decisions too.
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Re: Week 13 Elucidations

Postby Dossenator » Mon Nov 26, 2018 7:17 pm

Brett Beliema happened to Arkansas. Spence warned of this...I was skeptical. He did ok with Petrino recruits but regressed his last 2 season’s. He left Ark with little talent and super weak in key positions...especially the offensive line. Arkansas started the season with 7 scholarship offensive lineman. He left the QB and LB positions depleted of solid talent.

Then Norris comes in and installs an offense the complete opposite of Beliema.

Then find out there is trouble in the locker room...some of Beliema players causing problem.

Saw improvement every week until last 2 games. Looked like the team completely gave up those games.

The current recruiting class is ranked #10 National. Highest rated class AR has ever had since they started keeping rankings. So talent is coming to Fayetteville. We shall see if Morris can do something with it.
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Re: Week 13 Elucidations

Postby Mountainman » Mon Nov 26, 2018 8:03 pm

Dossenator wrote:Brett Beliema happened to Arkansas. Spence warned of this...I was skeptical. He did ok with Petrino recruits but regressed his last 2 season’s. He left Ark with little talent and super weak in key positions...especially the offensive line. Arkansas started the season with 7 scholarship offensive lineman. He left the QB and LB positions depleted of solid talent.

Then Norris comes in and installs an offense the complete opposite of Beliema.

Then find out there is trouble in the locker room...some of Beliema players causing problem.

Saw improvement every week until last 2 games. Looked like the team completely gave up those games.

The current recruiting class is ranked #10 National. Highest rated class AR has ever had since they started keeping rankings. So talent is coming to Fayetteville. We shall see if Morris can do something with it.



Things can get out of hand quickly........ but it’s no quick fix to rebuild a program. Appears the Razorbacks are on the right track recruiting at a high level, and you’ve got the next step identified and in your crosshairs. :wink:
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Re: Week 13 Elucidations

Postby donovan » Mon Nov 26, 2018 8:17 pm

My observation over the years that building a program starts at the very top. You need an administration that wants a program. If the Administration does not get involved in every aspect, it will never happen. Too many want to hire an AD or Coach and think a program is built on recruiting. Not the case.
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Re: Week 13 Elucidations

Postby Mountainman » Mon Nov 26, 2018 8:22 pm

donovan wrote:My observation over the years that building a program starts at the very top. You need an administration that wants a program. If the Administration does not get involved in every aspect, it will never happen. Too many want to hire an AD or Coach and think a program is built on recruiting. Not the case.



I couldn’t agree with you more..... it starts at the top. 8)
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Re: Week 13 Elucidations

Postby Mountainman » Mon Nov 26, 2018 8:37 pm

donovan wrote:
Mountainman wrote:
Spence wrote:I agree with that, but my problem with picking the four best teams is that we don’t know who is the best four, or the best ten for that matter. If any of us did we would make a lot of money betting the lines and the spreads. Neither does the committee, though, I believe they try. We can compare teams easily after they play, but before—we are all wrong a lot. I think the system is rigged against the non blue blood programs.



Well, we have proven beyond doubt that our picking is suspect, putting it gently since donovan will probably read this and he’s awful!!!! :lol: But the difference between us and the Committee is they rank teams after the games are played, and I agree they try....... and for sure it’s a steeper climb for the non-blue bloods, but inherently the lack of quality depth and opponent strength on those teams takes its toll.


I really suck at picking. Wife is the exception. I married well and can not be responsible for Mrs. donovan's bad decision making.

My exception to the Committee is, I think they have a multi-purpose goal. It is not solely about the 'best' four teams. It is spurred by the financial success of the event, even at the expense of many bowl games.

By design, they now can have volatile swings in their rankings. A team that is number 10 one week, eg Ohio State, could become number 5 the next week. Though this sounds good it allows the group to put in the four that ensures ESPN's goals are met.

Other sports that rank have some kind of point system, tennis, NASCAR, etc. A sport that loosey-goosey ranks are always suspect, eg boxing; because of the gambling, ticket sales, etc. That is where football is right now, a gambler's (the one making book) paradise.

The only thing that sucks more than I do, is the Central Committee. Muller needs to quit the investigation of President Trump's Russian connection and take on College Football Playoffs.


Hell, from what I’ve seen so far out of Muller is that if you hired him to investigate the College Football Playoffs, he would end up indicting the Marching Band, the Cheerleaders, the Ticket Takers and Concession Workers. :roll:

Perusing the media today, I see where they’re pushing the narrative that Georgia, Oklahoma and Ohio State are vying for the ‘remaining spot’ in the CFP........ with Alabama, Clemson and Notre Dame as locks. Good Grief, I hope that is not the case.
The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it, ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is.

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Re: Week 13 Elucidations

Postby donovan » Mon Nov 26, 2018 10:29 pm

You know they want Ohio State. That is the money game.
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Re: Week 13 Elucidations

Postby Spence » Mon Nov 26, 2018 11:22 pm

donovan wrote:You know they want Ohio State. That is the money game.



If short term ratings are the concern then they want Alabama Ohio State, Notre Dame Clemson. They National championship game won't draw that well but the semis would be the best ratings to date for playoffs. Oklahoma is the long term pick of ESPN because they own the rights to their games. That would give them 3 of the 4 teams and freeze out the B10 and Fox which would be good for them long term. None of that should matter to the committee, but it probably does.


I still don't believe either Oklahoma or Ohio State should be in. Neither have a good defense. Except Michigan, Ohio State hasn't played a good game from a defensive standpoint all year. And the number 1 defense and the number 2 offense from both teams can be explain by the B1G being not very good and that is what I see.

Oklahoma has a really good offense. They are going to score on anyone, but they can't stop anyone. I know from the 2002 National Championship win and the 2007 National championship loss, that a good defense can make a good offense look bad or at least tilt the field to get the edge for their offense. If Ohio State or Oklahoma go to the playoff they will lose very badly. I thought that West Virginia might have a chance, but defensive injuries too them out of the picture. Georgia probably has a good enough team to compete, but they don't have quite enough skill position talent to beat Alabama and Clemson back to back and Georgia would have to beat Bama twice because they are going no matter what. Honestly unless you want to throw a bone to the Domers and let them believe until game time, and let UCF in so they can have their day in the sun, they may as well skip to the final game and play Clemson Alabama and forget the other game. Let the Buckeye's go to the Rose and Oklahoma go to the Fiesta and end the year with a positive feeling instead of getting crushed at the end of the year. I know that paints a bleak picture of the state of college football, but that is how I see it.
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Re: Week 13 Elucidations

Postby Mountainman » Mon Nov 26, 2018 11:28 pm

donovan wrote:You know they want Ohio State. That is the money game.



I don’t know for certain, but I’ll venture a guess and say that Notre Dame and Ohio State have the two largest fan bases in the nation, hands down..... if it’s viewer ratings their after there’re no better choices. 8)
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Re: Week 13 Elucidations

Postby Mountainman » Mon Nov 26, 2018 11:52 pm

Spence wrote:
donovan wrote:You know they want Ohio State. That is the money game.



If short term ratings are the concern then they want Alabama Ohio State, Notre Dame Clemson. They National championship game won't draw that well but the semis would be the best ratings to date for playoffs. Oklahoma is the long term pick of ESPN because they own the rights to their games. That would give them 3 of the 4 teams and freeze out the B10 and Fox which would be good for them long term. None of that should matter to the committee, but it probably does.


I still don't believe either Oklahoma or Ohio State should be in. Neither have a good defense. Except Michigan, Ohio State hasn't played a good game from a defensive standpoint all year. And the number 1 defense and the number 2 offense from both teams can be explain by the B1G being not very good and that is what I see.

Oklahoma has a really good offense. They are going to score on anyone, but they can't stop anyone. I know from the 2002 National Championship win and the 2007 National championship loss, that a good defense can make a good offense look bad or at least tilt the field to get the edge for their offense. If Ohio State or Oklahoma go to the playoff they will lose very badly. I thought that West Virginia might have a chance, but defensive injuries too them out of the picture. Georgia probably has a good enough team to compete, but they don't have quite enough skill position talent to beat Alabama and Clemson back to back and Georgia would have to beat Bama twice because they are going no matter what. Honestly unless you want to throw a bone to the Domers and let them believe until game time, and let UCF in so they can have their day in the sun, they may as well skip to the final game and play Clemson Alabama and forget the other game. Let the Buckeye's go to the Rose and Oklahoma go to the Fiesta and end the year with a positive feeling instead of getting crushed at the end of the year. I know that paints a bleak picture of the state of college football, but that is how I see it.



I just want my fellow posters to understand that I’m not advocating for any team, my arguments are about the CFP Committee and their selective use of their own ambiguous metrics and criteria.

Now, I do have my own thoughts, such as, if Ohio State beats Northwestern in the same fashion as they beat Michigan, those teams were the two biggest wins the Irish had this season winning 24-17 and 31-21, plus the Buckeyes have the 13th game, so wouldn’t they unlock the Irish? And if Georgia knocks off Bama, wouldn’t the Bulldogs be in? And if the Bulldogs lose to Bama, and Oklahoma beats Texas, then there’s the Sooners with one 3 point loss and a 13th data point that the Irish just doesn’t have.
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Re: Week 13 Elucidations

Postby Spence » Tue Nov 27, 2018 1:36 am

Not a fan of the Irish or any of their self righteous independence (as in independent when it suits them ACC members when that suits them as well), but they didn’t lose to Purdue by 29 points. They knocked down the schedule they made which would have looked like one of the toughest in the nation 5 years ago.

Georgia is in if they beat Bama. I don’t think there is a question there and actually I think they are the 3rd best team. I don’t believe that two teams from the same conference should go, but I also look at what is being considered and I don’t think there is much of an alternative given this format and objective. They last few yours it has really been slim pickings to find four elite teams.
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Re: Week 13 Elucidations

Postby Cane from the Bend » Tue Nov 27, 2018 2:21 am

Spence wrote:Georgia probably has a good enough team to compete, but they don't have quite enough skill position talent to beat Alabama and Clemson back to back and Georgia would have to beat Bama twice because they are going no matter what. Honestly unless you want to throw a bone to the Domers and let them believe until game time, and let UCF in so they can have their day in the sun, they may as well skip to the final game and play Clemson Alabama and forget the other game. Let the Buckeye's go to the Rose and Oklahoma go to the Fiesta and end the year with a positive feeling instead of getting crushed at the end of the year. I know that paints a bleak picture of the state of college football, but that is how I see it.


And, if we still had the BCS, assuming that the ACC & SEC Championships turn out as expected, Clemson vs Alabama is exactly what we'd have.

UCF would play vs Georgia
Oklahoma would play Notre Dame
Ohio State would play Washington/Utah
Michigan would have an at Large Bid vs Texas/Washington/Utah

And Boise State would play Appalachian State in the Polynesian Pottery Club Bank of Uganda Bowl.

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Re: Week 13 Elucidations

Postby donovan » Tue Nov 27, 2018 4:45 am

Cane from the Bend wrote:
Spence wrote:
And Boise State would play Appalachian State in the Polynesian Pottery Club Bank of Uganda Bowl.

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Keerect...and it would be on Thursday Evening starting at 9:47 PM on ESPN 37, except in Central where it would not be seen at all. Peter Spraynozzel and Bill Bologna would be the commentators. They both can talk at the same time for five hours without saying anything. "Key to this game is to score more points than your opponents."
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Re: Week 13 Elucidations

Postby Eric » Tue Nov 27, 2018 7:01 am

We really need some new blood in college football. And by "new blood," I mean, "the same 4 or 5 programs need to get back on the upswing and challenge Alabama and Clemson." USC, where are you at? Texas? LSU? Oregon? Florida?

Somebody have a come-from-nowhere-all-the-pieces-actually-work-really-well type of year, for God's sake. Ohio State and Oklahoma are the only two teams outside of this Cleveland vs. Golden State-tier formality playoff we have going on who have been pulling their weight lately. Notre Dame, I guess it's "neat" for college football, but everybody knows this team will not get it done in the playoffs. Washington and Michigan State were the only two outsiders to make it in and everybody knew they had no chance.
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Re: Week 13 Elucidations

Postby Eric » Tue Nov 27, 2018 7:04 am

I really hope Scott Frost and Chip Kelly turn their programs into machines soon. The college universe depends on these two. Nobody else has a chance to make a seismic impact right now, outside of maybe Tom Herman or Jimbo Fisher. HarFraud isn't it, Taggart has zero chance, Mullen is good-not-great, Petersen does what he can, Helton will be fired next year and should have been fired this year, and Richt is good-not-great.

There's college football for the next 4 seasons. Clemson vs. Alabama with maybe Texas making a splash once. Urban retires, maybe HarFraud can get a W in that series, but probably not.

Really in this day of mass media, I think it's easier for dynasties to gain a foothold. Alabama will never slow down until Saban leaves, and even when he leaves whoever takes over will have it humming for at least 4 years. That powerhouse has reached critical mass and every high school football player offered wants to be a part of it. It has too high of a pedigree and sends players to the NFL at too high of a rate. You think of Pete Carroll's USC teams and they weren't able to continue winning championships. They recruited well, but had their fair share of stumbles because other teams in the Pac-10 weren't so thoroughly dominated to the point where there was this enormous talent gulf.

I mean I feel like this stuff was more off the radar 15 years ago, and it allowed teams to ebb and flow. 15 years ago the ACC was putting players into the NFL, especially on defense, at a similar rate as the SEC. You'd look around at programs like Virginia Tech and NC State and they had great defenses and could recruit. Now teams like Kentucky are out-recruiting them, partially because of 24/7 SEC hype through media that has multi-billion dollar contracts with that conference, such as ESPN. Everybody wants a piece of that SEC pie, even if it means they join losing programs. It's the "it" conference even though you could stay in the South and get a better education at certain ACC schools and that there's no reason you couldn't be developed into a pro athlete. The South is loaded with more football talent but it has the Big 12 on its western flank and hosts the majority of the ACC which should disperse some of that talent, instead the SEC is hoarding the lion's share of it now.
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