Top 10

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Cane from the Bend
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Re: Top 10

Postby Cane from the Bend » Mon Dec 04, 2017 5:56 pm

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No, no ... they really want Taggert ... or, maybe I want them to have Taggert.

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Cane... [__]

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Re: Top 10

Postby Spence » Mon Dec 04, 2017 7:15 pm

billybud wrote:I see....

So your tendency towards socializing football is because your mother attempted to economize and wrapped your sandwiches in inferior foil. The darn radio rays kept beaming in through your teeth.

SOCIALISM
You have 2 cows.
You give one to your neighbour

TRADITIONAL CAPITALISM
You have two cows.
You sell one and buy a bull.
Your herd multiplies, and the economy grows
You sell them and retire on the income

DEMOCRATS
You have two giraffes.
The government requires you to take harmonica lessons.

WISCONSIN LIBS
You have two cows.
The one on the left looks very attractive...


I like this a lot. I may use it at some point, just a heads up. :lol:

My approach would be to let the conferences play it out and let the teams that remain standing play against each other in a seeded tourney based on strength of schedule and wins. much like now - only with no human selecting of teams. OR...................just go play games crown a conference champ based on whatever criteria you like and then have big parties at the end culminating in a game with another team from another conference for bragging rights until next time. Then spend another week celebrating the end of football season. Then repeat. Either way works for me.
"History doesn't always repeat itself but it often rhymes." - Mark Twain

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Re: Top 10

Postby Spence » Mon Dec 04, 2017 7:22 pm

billybud wrote:Congrove has the same final four CFP as the committee...

Oh...So does Massey's compilation rankings of 100 + rankings...

Oh...and the AP agrees...so does the Coaches Poll

This drivel about back room manipulation is what it is...the effluvia of disappointed people who just know that another team shoulda, coulda, woulda...

All of these rankings must call the Committee to get their marching orders...Jeez...I am rushing out to buy shares in Alcoa...those tin foil hats are booming...



The AP follows the leaders - so what else is new. The computers .... well we don't use them anymore because sometimes we don't like how they work, unless we do and then they are fine and we can use them to prove our point. My point has always been that the only way you can have a legitimate champion is to remove all subjectivity. Does that give you the 4,6,8, 10 best teams --- No. But you do get the teams that proved on the field that they were the best that day. That is as close to a real champion that is possible in a sport with 128 players.

I do think at the end of the day the committee is close. I would have left Bama out for USC, but I would also admit to thinking Alabama would beat SC 8 out of 10 games. Maybe only seven. SC is just coming into themselves and will be good next year.
"History doesn't always repeat itself but it often rhymes." - Mark Twain

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Re: Top 10

Postby Old Ducker » Mon Dec 04, 2017 8:12 pm

I would have included Alabama myself, based on their overall body of work. If any game should be thrown out it is a rivalry game and that between Alabama and Auburn is as hotly contested as any in the nation.
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Re: Top 10

Postby billybud » Mon Dec 04, 2017 8:54 pm

Spence wrote:
billybud wrote:Congrove has the same final four CFP as the committee...

Oh...So does Massey's compilation rankings of 100 + rankings...

Oh...and the AP agrees...so does the Coaches Poll

This drivel about back room manipulation is what it is...the effluvia of disappointed people who just know that another team shoulda, coulda, woulda...

All of these rankings must call the Committee to get their marching orders...Jeez...I am rushing out to buy shares in Alcoa...those tin foil hats are booming...



The AP follows the leaders - so what else is new. The computers .... well we don't use them anymore because sometimes we don't like how they work, unless we do and then they are fine and we can use them to prove our point. My point has always been that the only way you can have a legitimate champion is to remove all subjectivity. Does that give you the 4,6,8, 10 best teams --- No. But you do get the teams that proved on the field that they were the best that day. That is as close to a real champion that is possible in a sport with 128 players.

I do think at the end of the day the committee is close. I would have left Bama out for USC, but I would also admit to thinking Alabama would beat SC 8 out of 10 games. Maybe only seven. SC is just coming into themselves and will be good next year.



WELL...it depends on how you think that the criteria should be evaluated to decide which teams should play for the National Championship....I want the 4 best teams in the country to match up...others, like you, don't care if a team isn't the best team. Folks have other criteria...some would like conference champs to play each other even if a non champ would beat that conference champ 70% of the time...others want to go strictly on wins and losses and not leave out a UCF...even if UCF is a 9 and 1/2 point under dog to three loss Auburn and thus has a 20% chance to win.

Why have USC and not Ohio State? Ohio State is favored in the bowl against USC.
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Re: Top 10

Postby billybud » Mon Dec 04, 2017 9:01 pm

The AP follows the leaders? HUH? Just what does that mean?

A not very well thought out comment...they do not follow the leaders...they decide them.

The AP, like Coaches, is a form of crowd wisdom...which has shown to have advantages over individual judgement...the idiosyncratic "noise" is reduced when spread out.
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Re: Top 10

Postby Old Ducker » Mon Dec 04, 2017 9:31 pm

billybud wrote:ALCOA

Aluminum Company of America...

...of course, the term "tin foil" is a holdover from the late 19th century, of which Donovan has fond memories of unwrapping the lunch packed by his mother in his tin pail lunch box...my reference was to give him a familiar reference point.

Do you get the tintype?


Off topic but have you ever seen a linotype machine? At first glance it looks totally rube goldberg but studying it closer it is pure genius...and to think this was designed before 3D modeling software.
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Re: Top 10

Postby billybud » Mon Dec 04, 2017 9:57 pm

donovan wrote:Something like that.

So here is where we differ. In your ultra-conservative approach, you use SOS to reward the very good, (rich) teams and cast aside those less fortunate that can not afford to pay their administrators and coaches mind-boggling amounts of filthy lucre. Like your new tax proposal...benefit the rich at the expense of the poor and put a spin on it that it is the opposite.

I, on the other hand in my new enlightened position, would use SOS to make football like golf or bowling and handicap the games. So the less fortunate that have not been able to do well because of the tyrannical policies of the NCAA, The Committee and the House on UnAmerican Activities, give them a break. I would use Massey handicap point spread, which means the "people" by their votes with dollars determine the handicap. So if a team does not cover the spread, they lose. Under my system, the National Championship could have Charlotte play Georgia Southern for the trophy. Keeps all the teams from the South which is so important. And of course, all would get participation ribbons.

PS You don't want Taggart.


Fwck!!! Now we have a left coaster wanting football to be like golf...play with a handicap, wear plaid britches...

I am not a social conservative or a liberal,,,but I resist the need to make championships a meaningless affair. To pretend that a team is a champion when they would get waxed on the field by three touchdowns by a stronger team...

The best means the best....golf pros would laugh about giving points handicap in the Masters.. ...
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Re: Top 10

Postby Spence » Tue Dec 05, 2017 12:15 am

billybud wrote:
Spence wrote:
billybud wrote:Congrove has the same final four CFP as the committee...

Oh...So does Massey's compilation rankings of 100 + rankings...

Oh...and the AP agrees...so does the Coaches Poll

This drivel about back room manipulation is what it is...the effluvia of disappointed people who just know that another team shoulda, coulda, woulda...

All of these rankings must call the Committee to get their marching orders...Jeez...I am rushing out to buy shares in Alcoa...those tin foil hats are booming...



The AP follows the leaders - so what else is new. The computers .... well we don't use them anymore because sometimes we don't like how they work, unless we do and then they are fine and we can use them to prove our point. My point has always been that the only way you can have a legitimate champion is to remove all subjectivity. Does that give you the 4,6,8, 10 best teams --- No. But you do get the teams that proved on the field that they were the best that day. That is as close to a real champion that is possible in a sport with 128 players.

I do think at the end of the day the committee is close. I would have left Bama out for USC, but I would also admit to thinking Alabama would beat SC 8 out of 10 games. Maybe only seven. SC is just coming into themselves and will be good next year.



WELL...it depends on how you think that the criteria should be evaluated to decide which teams should play for the National Championship....I want the 4 best teams in the country to match up...others, like you, don't care if a team isn't the best team. Folks have other criteria...some would like conference champs to play each other even if a non champ would beat that conference champ 70% of the time...others want to go strictly on wins and losses and not leave out a UCF...even if UCF is a 9 and 1/2 point under dog to three loss Auburn and thus has a 20% chance to win.

Why have USC and not Ohio State? Ohio State is favored in the bowl against USC.


I would like to have the 4 best teams. If you could devise a non subjective way to determine that then I would be all for it. And just because Ohio State is favored doesn’t mean Ohio State is better than ISC. It just means that Vegas thinks that is the spread that will split the bets.
"History doesn't always repeat itself but it often rhymes." - Mark Twain

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Re: Top 10

Postby billybud » Tue Dec 05, 2017 7:35 am

Yeah Spence...

Well riddle me this..DATA is data and is reality as it happens...and I believe in reality, not magical thinking, unicorns, or the utopian dream that all 123 teams can play on the same field.

The long term data supports that the Vegas line is VERY. VERY predictive of the straight up winner of the game ...The Vegas favorite in college football..at 6 points and above

Data...

SPREAD.....................FAVORITE WIN % (REAL OVER TIME)

6.0...............................70.7

6.5...............................72.4

7.0...............................75.2

7.5...............................78.5

8.0...............................79.1

9.0...............................80.7

and on and on..14 point favorites win 92.4% of the time


And...you don't really understand how Vegas sets original lines...Andy Kessler of the Nugget explains it...

Once the sportsbook has the games it wants, the work kicks into another gear.

“Then comes the fun part,” Kessler said. “I have to generate a power rating for each team we are booking.”

Power ratings are a lot like the power rankings you dive through weekly. The only difference is these ratings serve a distinct purpose beyond angering fan bases and dousing comment sections in flames.

These ratings allow oddsmakers to consistently handicap teams and games across the entire season, and they are especially integral to this process. Although the numbers for these ratings were not included—the Nugget has to keep some of the "secret sauce" secret, after all.

Crowd wisdom may move that initial line a point or two (more than one and one half is rare) as betters may think that a team can lose by six points not seven...pr win by 10, not 7.

BUT...the straight favorite WINS a preordinate amount of the time...you'd go broke quickly betting straight up against the Vegas favorite.
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Re: Top 10

Postby donovan » Tue Dec 05, 2017 11:19 am

I do not speak for Spence, but in the few serious moments of this board he, nor I, have ever believed that all 123 teams should be lumped into one group and judged against each other. You Mr. Billybud are the one that keeps defending this position having all play and only a few able to win. I have always suggested the small schools should pull out but have given their balls to the NCAA and they have them locked in their safe.

As for not understanding sports betting, I suggest you have done what all bookmakers from the street corner to Vegas, make you think that it is sophisticated and not understandable by anybody but the elite, a group you continue to defend in most all your arguments. People have been betting for as long as they figured out that gambling was a labor-saving device. Odds are set to promote betting, no matter how it is done. "Odds change for a couple of reasons, but, once again you need to understand how sportsbooks make money. Essentially a sportsbook looks to have an equal amount of risk bet on all outcomes of the wager. That is the ideal result for them. To ensure this, they adjust the odds to make a bet more attractive to the side with less bets." They balance the books and do not care who wins. The live on the vigorish, or simply the vig, also known as juice, under-juice, the cut or the take.

No matter how many algorithms and formulas they use to help balance the books, it all goes back to balancing the books.

As far as marketing their goods, they have a lot of shills out there spouting the gobbledygook you preach.
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Re: Top 10

Postby billybud » Tue Dec 05, 2017 12:18 pm

Keeerist Donovan...I don't defend the elite...I use facts..data..."Elite" is a labeling word used to end discussion...like bigot, or racist. FACTS...DATA....Discussion based on facts and data not social philosophy.

You know..emotion really plays in with sports guys and juries hearing criminal law cases....but in administrative law, there is a a fact driven process without emotional input...

The facts are determined, and judicial decisions are made based upon the found facts and points of law....

And...You cite how a sports book sets it's initial line without bothering to really know..or research that process. I do know sports betting...I understand how lines are made, who makes them, how they may move...and you, obviously do not but are regurgitating some message board pablum that you might have once read.
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Re: Top 10

Postby billybud » Tue Dec 05, 2017 12:23 pm

It is true that Vegas wants to make money...but they determine the underdog, and how much that team is an underdog, to encourage betting on that underdog. The line is a handicap, of course. Just like your beloved golf.

What you don''t address..Is HOW VERY, VERY, PREDICTIVE OF A STRAIGHT UP WINNER the Vegas line is.

That is a fact...no social jingoism and labeling of elite...just a fact. Driven by data...
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Re: Top 10

Postby billybud » Tue Dec 05, 2017 12:33 pm

Donovan

I peddle nothing...I state FACTS...you have no facts and you call actual data propaganda...
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Re: Top 10

Postby donovan » Tue Dec 05, 2017 1:02 pm

I think for once you may be correct. You are my friend and this conversation does not make sense to me. So back to grits which makes my pablum taste so good...
“Never let a problem to be solved, become more important than a person to be loved."


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