Bowl Thoughts

[Eric]

I'll have the bowl contest running soon, after I tally the final picks standings. Here are my general bowl thoughts:

I feel like Alabama is set to throttle Washington, but I want to see what Washington's offense can do to see whether or not they can hang in this game. Also, just don't throw pick sixes and kick the ball out of bounds. I'm so sick of seeing teams deflate because Bama's defense/special teams puts 6 on the board. Don't let any soul-crushing thing like that happen and you might stick around long enough to put the pressure on Hurts, who will be playing in the biggest pressure-packed games of his life thus far. He's had a pretty easy run of it in a down SEC, but let's see what he does when there's more pressure. Of course, Bama's running game is a huge security blanket and Washington hasn't seen anything like this yet this year. As far as who they play in the next round, I could see Ohio State or Clemson putting an upset together. I'm getting a 2014 (?) Kentucky basketball vibe about a team getting overconfident while everybody expects them to cruise. It's not out of the realm of possibility that this team might not look so invincible in this tournament.

The losing teams went undefeated in bowls last year, and I think they might have another good run left in them. 6-7 Hawaii gets homefield and Middle Tennessee who is without their starting QB Stockstill. Even so, they put up some huge numbers on offense against a really bad Florida Atlantic team for the last week of the year, but I think Hawaii's defense is a bit better than that. I would lean towards Hawaii here, although not very confidently. North Texas has already defeated Army this year and they get them in Texas, but I think Army will get revenge here. The last team is Mississippi State who gets a 6-6 MAC East team in Miami Ohio. Needless to say, not a good matchup for Miami with their mediocre offense. Which actually turned out to be decent for MAC East standards down the stretch having propelled them to 6 straight wins, but.....It's the MAC East.

The NFL gets the New Year's again, which I always hate. So hopefully nobody has to work on Monday or has a way to call in sick.

I'm not liking the Big 10 in this postseason, but Ohio State and Wisconsin might squeak by. Clemson has been pulling some 2014 Florida States by playing down to their competition. Ohio State is the best team in the conference, so if Clemson isn't humming on offense, the Buckeyes could win this. I'm not calling Ohio State overrated, but yes, Penn State and Wisconsin are. Western Michigan is capable of beating Wisconsin if they don't get manhandled up front. If they can keep the backs in front of them and tackle while limiting the YAC, they can stay in this game. Wisconsin's defense is very good and Western isn't too creative offensively, so they need to work on some trick plays. We see the Group of 5 team get counted out every year and the perception is always biased against them, but we've seen programs like UCF and Houston take it to their opposition. There's no way Western can win in that fashion, but they can win this game 23-21? Sure. This isn't an NIU/FSU situation because this Western team has much better athletes and can complete a downfield pass, unlike Jordan Lynch and company; Corey Davis is going to be a stud at the next level. I fully expect Penn State to get handled easily by USC and I'm leaning towards a Michigan loss to Florida State. Iowa will get destroyed by Florida. Nebraska will probably give a gutsy effort in a game that slips away from them in the late 3rd quarter against Tennessee, should be a double-digit loss there.

The best under-the-radar bowl game if you like offense is the Boca Raton Bowl between Western Kentucky and Memphis (I'm thinking 55-48? Can't tell you who wins). If you prefer a little more defense, then it's the Poinsettia between BYU and Wyoming. Although Wyoming has had some surprisingly terrible stretches on defense, which you wouldn't think is characteristic of a Craig Bohl team. I still say there's not too much offense in this game.

Least interesting bowl game, for the second year in a row, goes to the Arizona Bowl between Air Force and at-large South Alabama (you can only find the broadcast of this by streaming it on the Internet). UTSA vs. New Mexico in the New Mexico Bowl is in the running, but I like catching New Mexico's running game when I can and it'll be competitive (also the first bowl game for the UTSA program). The Idaho Potato Bowl has the Idaho Vandals participating so it's not going to get a lot of eyeballs, but it might be the final bowl game for Idaho before they drop down and join the Big Sky (takes effect in 2018). And while Eastern Michigan and Old Dominion won't be a huge draw in the Bahamas, how can you not be interested in seeing Eastern Michigan in a bowl game? . If I have to go second-least-interesting, I think the Quick Lane Bowl between Boston College and Maryland takes the cake for me.


My 5 Favorite:
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1. Cotton Bowl - Western Michigan vs. Wisconsin
2. Bahamas Bowl - Eastern Michigan vs. Old Dominion
3. Belk Bowl - Virginia Tech vs. Arkansas
4. Holiday Bowl - Washington State vs. Minnesota
5. Boca Raton Bowl - Western Kentucky vs. Memphis


My 5 Least-Favorite:
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1. Arizona Bowl - South Alabama vs. Air Force
2. Quick Lane Bowl - Maryland vs. Boston College
3. Independence Bowl - Vanderbilt vs. NC State
4. Miami Beach Bowl - Tulsa vs. Central Michigan (likely blowout)
5. Dollar General Bowl - Troy vs. Ohio

[Eric]

I will say this about P.J. Fleck: Whether or not he ends up coaching this game, he's done an unbelievable job and his enthusiasm is infectious.

The problem for him going forward, as I see it, is schematic. Right now he is the biggest fish in a little pond, but at the next level, his advantage is going to be totally neutralized. There are two ways to win in the MAC: You either out-recruit people and let the talent do its thing by default, or you out-scheme your mediocre opposing coaches with your average-to-decent talent pool if you can't recruit (these types of teams usually have veteran-laden rosters also). Fleck falls under the first category.

The talent across the MAC is spread out evenly once you get beyond the usual culprits (those being Toledo, NIU, Bowling Green, give or take a down year here and there). So when you look at a school like Western and you poach players out of the Chicago area and some of the better ones from around Michigan and Ohio and get the occasional guy from Florida, let them start for three years, this is the kind of year you can have. If he takes a job at Purdue or Indiana, any edge he can gain in recruiting will be offset by bigger schools who get kids automatically and who attract the best player-developers and gameplanners as head coaches and as staff members. His style is a winner in the MAC, but it will only get him so far at a larger school. I have no doubt he could recruit better relative to what Indiana and Purdue get already, but he won't be taking them to the promised land. And then this talent of his is redundant if a larger school like Oregon wanted him (I don't believe they do for this very reason). If he goes to Oregon and recruits well but gets out-schemed and doesn't get the optimal results from his players, then it's a wash and Oregon will be mired in 8-4/9-3 seasons. They'd be better off finding the best x's-o's guys they can find instead of a top-notch recruiter. You don't really need to recruit at Oregon.

So if you're asking me to predict the path of Fleck, I think it'll look something like Butch Jones. An upgrade in recruiting with kids wanting to play for the hot new item, but game-management, player development, and scheme will ultimately prevent the program from taking the next step up. I think Oregon would be dumb to pick Fleck with all of the resources they have. Indiana, Cincinnati, or Purdue, okay, more up their wheelhouse, but will Fleck want those jobs being as hot a commodity has he fancies himself right now? For an upstart coach, picking the wrong job is a death sentence because if you fail there, you'll be branded as a failure. He can always go back to the MAC, but you only get one crack at this thing.

It's a pretty interesting situation.

[billybud]

Alabama opens as a 14 1/2 point favorite vs Washington...

Ohio State is a 3 point favorite over Clemson

Michigan is a 6 1/2 point favorite over FSU

USC is a 7 point favorite over Penn State

Wisconsin is a 7 point favorite over Western Michigan

[Spence]

I think Penn State is a hot team right now. So is USC. Penn State should be in the playoff. I think they will come out playing with their hair on fire. I think they can won that game. I'm not sure I'm going to pick them yet, but this isn't the same Penn State team that beat Ohio State. They are playing with much more confidence and they are playing football on the edge of out of control. Some of the passes that those receivers are pulling down are ridiculous. As far as Wisconsin, it really depends on the match up. I think they probably can hold Western Michigan down. They will stop the run. I think their defense is very good, but the lack of any sort of consistent offense is going to keep most people in the game with them.

As far as Michigan and Florida State go, this one is tough. Florida State has the athletes to make this tough on Michigan, but Michigan has that defense. It is real and it is maybe the best in college football. They have a great punter that can turn the field position around. And they have a group of seniors out to prove something. If Michigan can control this game defensively and win the field position battle they will win. If Cook starts getting loose, Michigan doesn't have the offense to play catch up.

[donovan]

It will take a "perfect storm" for Washington to win. That is true of every other team in the country going against Alabama

Ohio State will beat Clemson by 21. The committee believes this, hence the matchup. The money game is back OSU V 'Bama.

There is always a case for smoke filled rooms. The quality of losses is so important!

Michigan v FSU The winner is the most mentally prepared. I give the edge to FSU, they have more to gain.

USC v Penn State Penn State is the better team but mentally if they think they belong in another bowl, they lose the one they're playing. Penn State win by 14

Wisconsin v Western Michigan. Western Michigan is the new Boise State. Wisconsin has nothing to win and everything to lose. Western Michigan is a good club that has played no one. Wisconsin by 21.

[Spence]

It will take a "perfect storm" for Washington to win. That is true of every other team in the country going against Alabama

Ohio State will beat Clemson by 21. The committee believes this, hence the matchup. The money game is back OSU V 'Bama.

There is always a case for smoke filled rooms. The quality of losses is so important!

Michigan v FSU The winner is the most mentally prepared. I give the edge to FSU, they have more to gain.

USC v Penn State Penn State is the better team but mentally if they think they belong in another bowl, they lose the one they're playing. Penn State win by 14

Wisconsin v Western Michigan. Western Michigan is the new Boise State. Wisconsin has nothing to win and everything to lose. Western Michigan is a good club that has played no one. Wisconsin by 21.

You have been watching a different Ohio State team than I have.

I think that Penn State will show up for the Rose. They do think they belong in another Bowl, but they haven't been any where in a while and they will be out to prove to the world that the committee messed up. I think USC is good too.

I think you are right about Alabama. But if Washington (or anyone else) can score points in every quarter and put Bama's defense in a spot, I don't think their offense can save the game. Easier said than done, but someone can sustains drives and get points, they will beat Alabama. You have to do to them what they do to you, though, you have to stop the run and make Hurts beat you with his arm.

[donovan]

No...I have been watching Clemson. Meyer will win the game by 21. How come we still don't have those points? Time to do a little virtual gambling.

[Spence]

No...I have been watching Clemson. Meyer will win the game by 21. How come we still don't have those points? Time to do a little virtual gambling.

I would say Eric will have them soon. They were just finalized yesterday.

I always pick Ohio State to win no matter what I think. Not a bad bet since they have won something like 84% of their games all time, but my confidence points on them will tell you how much I believe in the pick.

[billybud]

Clemaon has less of a chance against OSU than FSU has against Michigan...

FSU player thoughts...

"That white boy quarterback can't dance. He slow. He not Mo-Bile. That Buckeye boy can go all crazy leg on you. Gotta just make that Michigan white boy quarterback have to think for a second..he slow there too. It be like a stake truck back there while Ohio State has a sports car."

[Spence]

Clemaon has less of a chance against OSU than FSU has against Michigan...

FSU player thoughts...

"That white boy quarterback can't dance. He slow. He not Mo-Bile. That Buckeye boy can go all crazy leg on you. Gotta just make that Michigan white boy quarterback have to think for a second..he slow there too. It be like a stake truck back there while Ohio State has a sports car."

I don't see that. It is hard to look across conferences be able to compare teams. Clemson has lots of experience and talent. Ohio State has lots of talent. I do know that if Ohio State can't find a way to help Isaiah Prince on their offensive line that they can't beat anyone with an offense.

[donovan]

I'm with Mr. Billybud on this.

[Cane from the Bend]

Ohio State will beat Clemson by 21. The committee believes this, hence the matchup. The money game is back OSU V 'Bama.

There is always a case for smoke filled rooms. The quality of losses is so important!

Well, you are at least, half right.

The money game isn't Alabama vs Ohio State --- it is, instead: Alabama vs. Rematch

The story line is already set. They believe Bama will demolish Washington, and the face off against either, Clemson, the rematch from last year; or, Ohio State, the rematch where Alabama gets to vindicate themselves for losing in the first round in Ohio State's championship season.

Yep, the smoke is starting to clear in those rooms, as the powers that be are already patting themselves on their backs.

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[Derek]

Ohio State will beat Clemson by 21. The committee believes this, hence the matchup. The money game is back OSU V 'Bama.

There is always a case for smoke filled rooms. The quality of losses is so important!

Well, you are at least, half right.

The money game isn't Alabama vs Ohio State --- it is, instead: Alabama vs. Rematch

The story line is already set. They believe Bama will demolish Washington, and the face off against either, Clemson, the rematch from last year; or, Ohio State, the rematch where Alabama gets to vindicate themselves for losing in the first round in Ohio State's championship season.

Yep, the smoke is starting to clear in those rooms, as the powers that be are already patting themselves on their backs.

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I wonder if they use Butane or matches in these smoke filled rooms. I prefer butane myself.

I agree with Spence, but will add to it in the thought that Penn State will feel slighted. I don't think they will lose their game.

[donovan]

It's for sure they don't use wooden matches that you strike on the sole of your boots, that might give the committee some class. And the cigars aren't Romeo y Julieta.

[billybud]

I'd like to see some "wild men" on the committee...not quite so corporate.

I could see Dana Holgorsen, stubbled beard and wind blown hair, snapping a match on his thumbnail, Clint Eastwood style, and lighting a stubby cheroot while shuffling a deck one handed in the back room.