Metrics, Weirdness, and Winning with Losses

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billybud
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Metrics, Weirdness, and Winning with Losses

Postby billybud » Fri Oct 23, 2015 8:28 am

ESPN ranks teams based on their proprietary FPI formula...and it has weird results vs on field winning.

Tennessee is 3-3 and ranked #13....I guess "good losses" count more than most wins. The Vols are ranked two spots ahead of 6-0 FSU.

USC is 3-3 and ranked #6....they are ranked ahead of 6-1 Notre Dame and 5-1 Stanford although they were beat by both of these teams.
“If short hair and good manners won football games, Army and Navy would play for the national championship every year.”

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Vileborg
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Re: Metrics, Weirdness, and Winning with Losses

Postby Vileborg » Fri Oct 23, 2015 2:58 pm

ESPN likes to throw a bunch of stats in a barrel, mic drop and then walk away like they are the gods of sports.

Their much touted QBR is just as much garbage as their FPI.

I was looking at their FPI rankings for the NFL and they are a laugh. I won't go into the details but let's just say I would consult a five year old before I'd trust that stat.

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Re: Metrics, Weirdness, and Winning with Losses

Postby Spence » Fri Oct 23, 2015 3:55 pm

They do it to stir things up so people access their resources. People always do. It is like Mark May's "feud" with Ohio State fans. The Buckeye fans bite every time. It is ridiculous that most see it.
"History doesn't always repeat itself but it often rhymes." - Mark Twain

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Re: Metrics, Weirdness, and Winning with Losses

Postby donovan » Fri Oct 23, 2015 4:37 pm

billybud wrote:ESPN ranks teams based on their proprietary FPI formula...and it has weird results vs on field winning.

Tennessee is 3-3 and ranked #13....I guess "good losses" count more than most wins. The Vols are ranked two spots ahead of 6-0 FSU.

USC is 3-3 and ranked #6....they are ranked ahead of 6-1 Notre Dame and 5-1 Stanford although they were beat by both of these teams.


Several years back, and for many years forward from then, we, on this board were having heated discussions about this. We all took pretty extreme positions because I suspect we are all pretty hard-headed. We didn't agree. But what we all did foresee and agree upon this whole system was headed where we are now, above quote is th evidence. Even Mr. Congrove declined to become involved because of what he thought would happen. I am not sure what is a good analogy but may it is like teams trying to climb Mt. Everest and not all teams can do it, so helicopters just fly up there, drop some off and skim over how they arrived. Not so good. Maybe it is like professional wrestling, most know it is fixed, but many still like to watch it. Maybe it is just incomprehensible.

BYU is playing Wagner tomorrow. Check it out. If they win by 125 points they should still fall off the chart. They won't. (With all respect to Wagner, I didn't even know they existed.)
Statistics are the Morphine of College Football

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Re: Metrics, Weirdness, and Winning with Losses

Postby Spence » Fri Oct 23, 2015 8:17 pm

We all took pretty extreme positions because I suspect we are all pretty hard-headed.


My wife says I am hard headed. I don't see it. :lol:
"History doesn't always repeat itself but it often rhymes." - Mark Twain

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Re: Metrics, Weirdness, and Winning with Losses

Postby billybud » Sat Oct 24, 2015 8:23 am

For my friend Donovan....

The "little guy" nobody hears about...and their great record.

Mount Union is looking to extend its regular season win streak to 100 this weekend. Their last regular season loss was in October 2005, ten years ago.

Mount Union is an unbelievable 209-1 in regular season since 1994.

Go Purple Raiders! The King of their football Monte Carlo.
“If short hair and good manners won football games, Army and Navy would play for the national championship every year.”

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donovan
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Re: Metrics, Weirdness, and Winning with Losses

Postby donovan » Sat Oct 24, 2015 1:25 pm

I am loving it. I have no problem rooting for the unknown. The only thing Mrs. Donovan says I have done 100% in that time period is miss the toilet...I dislike it so much when she is correct.
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Re: Metrics, Weirdness, and Winning with Losses

Postby Spence » Sat Oct 24, 2015 5:43 pm

billybud wrote:For my friend Donovan....

The "little guy" nobody hears about...and their great record.

Mount Union is looking to extend its regular season win streak to 100 this weekend. Their last regular season loss was in October 2005, ten years ago.

Mount Union is an unbelievable 209-1 in regular season since 1994.

Go Purple Raiders! The King of their football Monte Carlo.


Mount Union has a great program. They were in our league in college. There is a lot of football pride in Alliance Ohio. They have been good as long as I remember in their class. It is a good school too.
"History doesn't always repeat itself but it often rhymes." - Mark Twain


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